The Waikato Times WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 1940 ITALIAN OFFENSIVE ?

Waikato Times, Volume 127, Issue 21221, 18 September 1940, Page 6

The Waikato Times WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 1940 ITALIAN OFFENSIVE ?

Italian propaganda which suggests that Germany may not invade Britain this summer, but that she may occupy the winter with preparations for a great spring offensive, is interesting in view of Italy’s own share in the Axis campaign. Mussolini probably hopes that his position in the Mediterranean will be advanced considerably during the winter, and what is more natural than that he should expect Germany to augment his strength while Germany waits ? Winter conditions seriously hamper campaigning in northern Europe, but are eminently suitable for operations in the Middle East. Then why should Germany allow its army to remain more or less idle while there are so many fields to conquer in North Africa and the Balkans ? Italy,would probably welcome any assistance that Germany might be able to afford.

Ihe difficulty is. of course, that only a limited number of men can be engaged by the enemy in the Middle East because sea transport is extremely precarious. The greatest contribution Germany could make would be a fleet of warships, but that is the chief tragedy of the Axis. Italy also needs warplanes in great numbers. Can Germany assist her in that direction ? It is very doubtful. Germany is beginning to realise that even though the invasion of Britain may be delayed, Hitler will have need of all his forces. Britain will not remain forever on the defensive. British strength is growing every day, and Hitler is well aware that the time must come when he will be forced to defend his ill-gotten gains. To deplete his own strength by sending substantial numbers of men or machines to aid Italy would be an invitation to Britain to begin the offensive which must come sooner or later.

Expert opinion expected an early offensive by the Italians, and at the moment there is doubt whether the crossing of the Egyptian border can be regarded as the beginning of a large-scale attack. Points inside Egypt evacuated by British troops some time ago have been occupied by Italian forces, but the exchanges of hostilities so far have been desultory. Britain was aware of the intended offensive, and it is a question whether the arrival of strong British naval and military reinforcements has not upset the enemy’s plans. If Italy Finds it impossible to ship strong forces across the Mediterranean the risks of a full-scale offensive with the limited reserves available are obvious.

Official sources at Rome claim that Italian forces will be in Alexandria in about a month, so it must be accepted that Mussolini still plans an offensive. Egypt has insistently warned Rome that if Egyptian soil is violated war will be declared. Egypt in itself may not be a very powerful nation, but it has a strong influence over the whole of Islam, and war with Egypt might easily develop into war with Islam, with consequent danger to Italy at many points. A holy war against Italy has long been a distinct possibility, and the danger has no doubt been causing Mussolini to hesitate on the brink of an attack upon Egypt.