THE WAIKATO TIMES With which Is incorporated The Waikato Argus. TUESDAY, MARCH 18, 1930. IN DEEP WATERS.

Waikato Times, Volume 107, Issue 17972, 18 March 1930, Page 6

THE WAIKATO TIMES With which Is incorporated The Waikato Argus. TUESDAY, MARCH 18, 1930. IN DEEP WATERS.

The Naval Conference is in a very interesting condition, but at the same time it must be admitted that its chances of success arc not so good as they were. France remains the difficulty, and to some extent this is due to the political position. M. Tardieu is spoken of as a strong man, but his is not a strong Government, and it is said that he fears ’that any concession on his part would not be approved in Parliament, and that his Government would fall. The French have a strong position logically, but logio is not everything and unless the Powers are prepared to take some risks there will never be any reduction of armaments, and we shall move slowly forward to another war, even more disastrous than the last. France demands that she be given some guarantee of security before she makes any reduction in her navy. Who or what she fears is not clear, and there does not seem to be any prospect of a new navy coming into existence by 1936, when this agreement comes to be revised. The general opinion will be that France is using a diplomatic position which seems to bo favourable to force a guarantee from Britain and America. It is strange to hear that, their arguments seem to have had some weight with Mr 11. L. S’timson, the American representative, but this is merely personal as the American delegation know that any treaty or agreement of the kind would be disowned by the Senate, and this would create a most unfortunate position. The recollection of the way in which the Senate rejected both the Versailles treaty and the League of Nations cannot be forgotten, and no American Government would risk a repetition of such a catastrophe. It is one of the anomalies of the American Constitution that all treaties require the assent of the

Senate; that is, of the body in which the back blocks have the final voice. The discussion and negotiations arc

bringing it home to the American representatives that in the absence of provisions for enforcement the Kellogg Pact is of very limited value. That is, at least, the way in which it is regarded in France, who are by no means content to rest upon the sentiment of friendship which America is supposed to entertain .towards ‘her. In this she is wise. For as many years as it is worth while to consider America will refuse to take any part in European quarrels. This leaves it to Britain to act alone, and Uie choice lies between giving a guarantee or increasing her navy to correspond with that of France. The objections to either course are very ,strong. Although France believes that she is a peaceloving nation, it is an opinion she has strictly to herself, and an alliance with her would mean that Britain was responsible to some extent for French policy without any means of influencing -or controlling it in any way. Britain is already involved in something of the kind by the Locarno agreement., and any further extension of such a method would be unwise. But if the idea of guarantee is unpalatable the alternative of maintaining a large navy to cope with France is equally disagreeable. It would mean a larger expenditure for one thing, and the chief concern at present is whether Mr Snowden can avoid an increase in taxation in the coming Budget. For another thing America claims parity with Britain and would increase her navy if Britain did so. That would mean the failure of the Conference, which would bo deplorable. We may be sure that Mr Ramsay MacDonald will make strenuous efforts to avoid failure. Hitherto his Government has won its laurels in foreign questions and a failure would be a serious blow, while the increased naval expenditure would make higher taxation inevitable. It would, of course, be possible to ignore France and reduce the Navy in spite of her, but this would result in the bitterest opposition from the Conservatives and from the military and naval experts, and might end in the defeat of the party. They could, of course, appeal to the country, but a general election run on a cry for economy in opposition to an appeal for adequate armaments would have small chance of success. Economy is never an effective battle cry at a general election. Few people realise that they arc interested in taxation. They think that seme undefined rich man pays for it, though usually the poorer man pays his full share and sometimes more. The Labour Party will have a severe shock if the Conference should fail, -and will run a great risk If they ignore the French and reduce the Navy. Nevertheless, the latter would probably be the wiser course. The actual threat from France is negligible. We can see that France has nothing to fear f rom Britain, and we should be able to realise in the same way that Britain has nothing to fear from France. It is not only the armed forces in existence that count in any estimate of a country's strength; it is its capacity in many directions, including that of finance. But although it might well be the wiser course to ignore French objections it is doubtful if Mr MacDonald will find the requisite firmness. He has a genuine desire. to reduce armaments, but an even stronger desire to retain power, and does not strike one as a man Who would risk his place in order to secure bis policy.