THE AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK.

Waikato Times, Volume XXXI, Issue 2498, 14 July 1888, Page 2 (Supplement)

THE AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK.

Brightening Prospects.

Tub Melbourne Leader of Juno 16th saya : —" Hope is dawning of better times for farmers in regard to the prico of wheat, which, there is reason to believe, will be higher in futuro. During the last 12 months there has been a great falling off in the exports of grain from India, although freights and exchanges were lower thau during the previous year. In the first two months of this year the exports of wheat from India to Britain were only one-sixth of those of tho same months in the two preceding years ; this, however, was due to tho short harvests of the two preceding years. Notwithstanding, it is not expected that tho exports, even in good seasons, will ever bo so largo as they have beeu, for the population of India is increasing, while tho area available for wheat production is comparatively limited j so that tho influence of India in determining the price of grain in Britain, where the prices govern those of this country, and, indeed, it may be said, of tho rest of tho world, will,' probably diminish year by year. Besides, the frequent famines that have so often fallen as a blight in India have taught its people not to gamble with their stocks of grain, and it is only when they have a clear surplus that any of it is exported. Moreover, the area under wheat in Amerioa is not increasing, but rather diminishing ; while tho population continues to increase." There is no lack of evidence, says the North British Agriculturist, to show that the long ebbing tide of agricultural prosperity is now upon the turn. Our system of agriculture has lately been passing through a complete revolution, but agriculturists are now adapting themselves to the altered condition of the times. Prices for farm produce ha\ e fallen all round, but the costs of production are being reduced to an equal extent. Rents arc being adjusted to tho times, partly by the natural termination of leases, but largely also by the fact that landlords are finding it much better policy to reduce an impossible rent to a good tenant rather than ruin the tenant and the land both, and get his farm thrown on his own hands in a worthless condition. Labour is also much cheaper than before, while the feeding stuffs and fertilisers on which almost every good farmer spends a sum quite equal to his rent havo fallen in value quite as much as farm produce. Farmers holding under rent that have been adjusted to the times are. therefore, realising the fact that a low' range of prices may be quite as profitable as a higher, provided the costs of production be proportionately reduced. Last winter, for instance, despite the low prices ruling for fat stock, feeding cattle paid fairly well, because they were bought so cheaply in tho autumn while the price of feeding stuffs had been so much reduced.

The same journal remarks :—Among other facts which go to indicate that a higher range of values for farm produce may be expected shortly, it is worthy of notice that the visible supply of wiieat in America is now 15,000,000 bushels less that) it was last year at this time. The estimate of the growing crops by the United States Government leads to the inference that the. wheat crop in that country will this year be 4,000,000 bushels less than the average, and since that estimate was madi a great deal of damage to the wheat has been sustained through bad weather. Wheat is consequently rising in price in America, and other grains are rising in sympathy with it. These facts, combined with the great decline in the supply of wheat. India cannot fail to have a marked effect on the prices of Home grain in the near future. If the revival of trade of which we are so often being told should prove to be real and permanent so as to cause higher freights, the improvement would be felt immediately. At present, however, steamers are bringing the grain from both sides of America at nominal rates, and in many cases are even paying a small sum per ton to get it as ballast. This fact may show that shipping has not been much more profitable of late than farming. As it is, a decidedly firmer tone prevails in the home grain trade, and higher values will, doubtless, be realised before long. Another very noticeable fact is the sharp rise in the price of store cattle, which is all the more remarkable considering that the pastures are in a backward state. Tho improvement in the price of stores is placed as high as from £2 to £3 per head, compared with the prices that prevailed in the autumn. Fat cattle are also rising, and this winter feeding stock have paid their way very well. The lotting of grass parks opened rather dull, with rents generally lower than last year, but within the last few weeks a great change in this respect has set iu, and rents have risen in raauy cases considerably above the currencies of last year. All these facts go to show that tho prospects of agriculturists and stock owners are brightening somewhat, and that confidence in the future of British agriculture is returning generally.