THE GRAIN TRADE.

Waikato Times, Volume I, Issue 3, 7 May 1872, Page 2

THE GRAIN TRADE.

The " Times "of Jan. 5 publishes the following review of the grain, trade for 1871, and? estimate of its the.i position by Mr H.KainsJackson :— From whatever direction opinion starts, it seems in the grain trade at the present day to end in exaggeration. In the commencement of this year the wants of beseiged Paris; were over discounted in glutted depots, and, contrarily, the English and French harvests, and resources have since been under-rated;. accordingly the 12 months (beginning withwar in France, and the dregs of agitationbetween. English and Russia, but ending with European peace, and an Arbitration Treaty between England and America) have seen tradealways on the point of being different fromwhat it was, showing business to> be restingon a fictitious basis producing uneasiness and; disappointment to all; for, although priceshave been, high, they have not benefited merchants to any extent. The fluctuations of value may be reviewed: better in. groups than by quotations from-' month to mratlv.. From January to the end of June the puices of wheat rose from h2& 6d to-60s, and flour, specially required, also kept relatively a high value, affected by the state o£ France. The winter imports ink) theUnited Kingdom were small, the spring season and early summer were very ungenial,. and after the first opening of Parisiiad freed the accumulated stocks in French ports (in. London, Antwerp, and other place 3, when the scramble to forward food supplies was over) the second siege of Paris broke up national credit and European confidence. At this stagej with midsummer bleak and misty as-: November, with harvest, prospects most unsatisfactory, the English markets coald uoi -raise prices above 605,.a level which, in theopitiion of experienced millers, would be high, enough attract sufficient supplies from abroad if England ceased to cultivate wheat Prom July to the end of September the even balance of prices waa maintained under the opposite influences of reviving confidencein France, fair accounts from Italy, Algeria,. Spain, and America of their tagyeats, thefineness of English weather in August, the* good crop of forage, and the abundance oi

garden vegetables, selling at about half their | usual value ; while, on the other side, England j continued exporting freely of her best homegrown wheat. July was a most unsettled month, and advices from California estimated the surplus o( her harvest available for export at only about half the bulk of yearr. These causes, and the exhaustion of English farm stocks, joined to the general dislike of holders to reduce value, maintained wheat from 59s Id in July to 07s 3d at the end of ; September. I Of the English harvest the fact may be rrcorded that, notwithstanding one of the most j inclement blooming periods ever known, not a ; note of warning came from growers at the j moment, whereas afterwards during cutting j the grain, arid after the first threshing, there was an alarming outcry of deficiency which staggered opinion, despatched large orders abroad, and excited the expectations of foreign shippers to a height which all subsequent business has found a confirmed difficulty. In these columns was given the first published notice of a deficient wheat crop, supplemented with the remark that otherwise the produce of the land was such that the year must be considered rather as one of plenty than of scarcity, nor was the aggregate deficiency of the wheat yield regarded as excessive, or of sufficient importance to demand extraordinary imports, the bulk ot eight to ten million quarters, received in ordinary years, being deemed ample for the national requirements. This estimate at the present date of writing, is commonly tmdorsed, after large autumn supplies have fceen received, but which, instead of being consumed, have been stored in the granaries of the kingdom. The country requires additional granary accomodation, London especially, to tMiable it to become the European depot its trade constitutes it. The last group of weeks, from the end of September to the end of December, Jhas carried value downwards, but only from 57s 3d to 55s 4d for English, about as little for the finest foreign sorts, but osto 5s on inferior grain. During these three months there have been unprecedented supplies from farmers, large imports from abroad, culminating at Christmas-tide with the arrival off our coast of one of the largest grain fleets ever anchored in our ports of call. Wanting certainly nine million quarters, we have lately been receiving at the rate, of over 12 million quarters per annum of wheat. Referring' to the winter early in October, I wrote, ' If at any period dearness and scanty supplies occur they will only be for a short time, and as soon as the hindrances and accidents of the season fall away of their own weakness, value, with sufficiency of breadstuffs, will sink to a moderate level.' Now, two of the 'accidents' of the season—the large French demand for seed and other wheat after harvest, and next the rigour of extreme cold in December—have come and passed away, leaving the expected result. Similar temporary strains may be looked for during the next two months, and temporarily thoy may inflate value for the moment; but even this I do not now anticipate. Our stocks, probably half to one million quarters in excess of mo>st years, and the floating bulk in some 150 wheat ships, many cargoes over 400 quarters, have set their seal on value for winter. Millers and other large consumers know at what rates the available stocks (enough for the next three months) have been obtained, and this knowledge furnishes them with a market-key to their future bargains, while sellers, helped by the sound state of the money-market, may hold firmly enough, just to get their own again ; this state of things closes the road of speculation, which is an absentee from European markets, America being its last refuge, where there are still sanguine believers iu higher rates, forgetful that New York's opportunities decrease as the days .lengthen and bring Russian and Baltic sources of supply forward as direct competitors in spring and summer. Hitherto spring shipments have often depended in Southern Russia on receipts first from the interior ; now, and still more so in the future, railway transit in winter will make supplies available earlier in spring, a consideration that, cannot fail to affect American trade, eliciting competition nine months of the year instead of throughout six. Seeking for an equable balance of the present position, buyers and sellers are bound to remember that prices last January, in a period of war, which has raised their level several shillings, were under 535. This January they are 2s to 3s higher. The reasons wherefore are difficult to explain. To maintain high rates two things are necessary —first, scarcity, and next fears of a greater scarcity. Neither of these conditions exists, and value must be tested on the regular basis of current supplies and demand. Offers are now commonly being made for spring shipment and delivery at present currencies, a feature that must give character to future trade. ——. ..» ...