The Wanganui Chronicle. "NULLA DIES SINE LINEA." TUESDAY, OCTOBER 31, 1905. IS IT A REVOLUTIONP

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume XLIX, Issue 12641, 31 October 1905, Page 4

The Wanganui Chronicle. "NULLA DIES SINE LINEA." TUESDAY, OCTOBER 31, 1905. IS IT A REVOLUTIONP

It certainly seems as if the long smouldering embers of discontent have been fanned into flame and that the fires of revolution are getting beyond the control of the Russian authorities. The startling news which has been owning to hand for the past few days reveals a sorry condition of affairs, and leaves no (room for doubting that at least something akin to a revolutionary crisis has arisen. The one thing lacking is the evidence of effective organisation on the part of the disaffected people, and the apparent absence of forceful and recognised leaders. But on the other hand there is the extraordinary precautions which are being taken by the Government to cope with the trouble, precautions of so drastic a character, and so far reaching in extent as to suggest that a revolution is apprehended even if it has not yet matured. All the more serious.disorders which the rulers at.St. Petersburg have up to the present had to meet have occurred in parts of what the " Spectator " describes as " the lialf-subdued fringe of the true centre of Russian power, the huge plain without a hillock or a dialect, the dwellers on which ar-3 now eighty millions in number, and have for ages furnished the Czars with tho means they hare expended in perpetual expansion " The rising of the peasants of that wideplain might carry with it, perhaps," the annihilation of the Romanoff dyna&iy; but such a rising is not yet -ippaTient. In weighing the probab'li:; .?«s of revolution in Russia, in tjhe light »f fJio Wents which had oocurrod u,o to tho mid-i'o of last month, the " Spec--Vor " pivsent<-d the view that tho elem&rics of a nui ionalinsurrection were not thcu in cv denoe. It :.aid:— Do we / estimate accurately the thoughts -which dominate the minds of these vast multitudes, who know, from the Western point of view, scarcely anything? They may be irritated instead of attracted by the violent movement among the outlying peoples whom they have spent centuries in conquering, may acute'y fear that any change may break up ' Holy Russia." It should not be forgotten that in th^-secret meeting of the peasant delegates outside Moscow they, while liberal dn many respects,.insisted that a Caar was an absolute neeescity. It is by no means,certain, though so many unconsciously assume it, that, in the event; of collision between the Duma and the Czar, the representatives from the plain will not adhere to the Sovereign's side. In any case, it is certain that the fringes of Russia, .which are now the seats of active disaffection, can do very little to affect the central authority, except, indeed, worry it into fury. There are rumours of a coming revolt in Finland; but what, even if those rumours aa-e well founded,' can a population of two millions with an imperfect provision of arms do against a State like Russia? The Baltic Provinces are full of brave men, but they cannot create a modern army. The wisest, men in Poland are warning the Poles that the time is not opportune for an insurrection, which might bring down on them not only Russia, but the irresistible German Army. As for the Caucasus, if the tribes were united, which they are not, they might with the aid of their mountains and the desperate valour of their Mussulman section, recover for a moment their independence; but they would be powerless outside their own boundary, and if.Russia wished to retain them, as Russia would, they would be conquered again as they were in 1839. They will hardly produce a second Sohamyl..- The fringe provinces have not vhe slightest sympathy with each other, or any means of arranging for concerted action. They all, perhaps, desirt* self-government, and all think the. central .power'weaker for its defeats; but those are not strong bonds. It is true that, if we may judge from th& behaviour of the Reservists, the peasantry did not care whether Manchuria was lost or not; but they the peasantry had not for centuries been lighting for ManohuKk. The truth is that until the Army expresses a will which is not that of the Trcoie, or the peas-ants of Russia Proper beg'n to menace not the landlords but the Government, the Romanoffs are at least as strong as their opponents, probably much stronger. If their chief were a swiftly acting man, or a great man in any w.iy, the strength of the Government would speedily be patent to the world; and even the Czar's character may be partially misread. He never altered his resolution to go on with the war until he was, so to speak, oaught by the" unexpected action of the Japanese in waiving their indemnity. Neither of that essen" tial detail, nor of the tone of-the-Rus-sian Army, nor of the wishes of the real Russian people, does the world as yet know enough to justify the over-

confident anticipations that we hear on all sides. It is reported every now and then that this or that regiment has shown symptoms of disaffection; but whenever their services are required the, regiments obey the Czar's orders as if they were tfhe most contented troops in the world, always obeying, to begin with, the order which shifts them from the scene of their reported discontent. to some less pleasant cantonment." Similarly it is reported at intervals that in this or liiat district of Russia the peasantry have attacked and plundered the oha-teaux; but, as a rule y immediately after " order is .restored," or when it is not tJie little " revolt" is treated as something which is ominious or disagreeable, but which does not affect the Government. The anger expressed on. these occasions is not anger with the Czar. There are no leaders of the popular movement; there is no clear proof, so far as the peasantry are concerned, to What definite end it is directed; there" is, in fact,' nothing but a series of disconnected incidents which raise a presumption that there is much floating discontent in Russia, which in places reveals itself in disaffection, and -which on the outskirts of the Empire occasionally paralyses authority by outbursts of horrible violence. For all that appears certain, the conflict between the central power and its opponents may end in an explosion, but is quite as; \ikely to result in a long and dreary contest lasting years, perhaps only t<* ended by the emergence of a Sovereign co- a Sovereign's Vizier, who knows prel eisrely the limits of concession which will leave the Empire strong, and hhn-< s»lf as its entirely trusted head. That happened in Austria, and it may happen in Russia, too. The riots, and strikes, and insurrections which ocbufc in the'■outlying provinces or States on the f t-inge of Russia, and which just, now so absorb the attention of obi servers,- -will, so far as we can judge, . have but little effect upon the total result. ■• - ' ' " ' " V :'■"■■*:■■