GERMAN COLLAPSE

Wairarapa Times-Age, 23 December 1942, Page 6

GERMAN COLLAPSE

EXPECTED BY OVERSEAS ECONOMIST ALLIED VICTORY MAY COME NEXT YEAR. AIR WARFARE AGAINST JAPAN. CHICAGO, October 7. Dr Melchior Palyi, international economist, said today that Septembei' marked the turning point of the war in favour of the Allies and that the Allied victory would be achieved in “about a year.” Germany’s war effort would collapse, Dr Palyi predicted, if 25 per cent of its production could be halted by repeated bombings of its industrial sections while it is attempting to conduct major activities on several fronts. In an address prepared foi’ delivery to a wartime emergency conference of the National Restaurant Association, Dr Palyi declared that “when Germany’s expansion was stopped during the last month, the turning point came. “Germany was halted in Egypt and the outcome of the Battle of Stalingrad matters little in the final analysis, because Germany’s advance into Russia will be effectively stopped by the winter weather,” said Dr Palyi, former economic adviser to the Reichsbank and the Deutsche Bank in Berlin. He came here in 1933 as visiting professor and research economist at the University of Chicago. He told the conference that a “second front” already exists and, although inactive, “it serves a valuable purpose in aiding Russia. “The second front is in Western Europe where Germany is keeping upwards of a million men in fear of an invasion. There will be third, fourth, and fifth fronts, with continued bombings preventing Germany from supplying war materials to these farflung activities. Once soldiers begin to run out of ammunition, surrender is inevitable.” As to the war in the Pacific, Dr Palyi said that once Germany “was out of the way,” the war with Japan could be regarded as a “major colonial expedition.” He likened it to the Boer War. Then, he pointed out, it took the English two and a half years to win, although there was never any doubt as to the eventual outcome. “That, however, was before the day of airplane warfare," Dr Palyi said, “and an airborne assault may result in a comparatively quick Allied victory.” ____________