JAPAN’S CHANCES

Wairarapa Times-Age, 17 November 1942, Page 4

JAPAN’S CHANCES

SOME INSIDE INFORMATION

STRENGTH AND WEAKNESSES SEEN. INTERNED PROFESSOR’S STORY. Professor 11. J, Bird, of Tokio University—he had lived 33 years in Japan—lately reached Lourcnco Marques in a (diplomats’ ship. From Mozambique he ■ cabled this article to the "Daily Express,” London. Do not believe the talcs, he says, that Japan is short of material; that her war weapons are inferior; that her people are already half starving. . . . But of the outcome of the Far Eastern war, he says: “I don’t think Japan has a chance.” What arc Japan’s chances now? Well, bluntly, J. do not think she has a chance —but she has already proved sheican cause a mighty lot of damage meantime. When the clash comes she will hope to rush in quick and compromise with the Alies, using conquered territory as a bargaining counter. I have comp straight from the Far East, where I observed a good deal at first hand in Japan because I was interned at Yokohama racecourse for only* a month, afterwards being allowed to live at home, and had complete freedom of movement. The only thing I had to do was to fill in a diary describing my movements.

I ridicule many views I hear, and, in spite of my prophecy that Japan has no chance, wish to shout a warning against wishful thinking. I don’t believe any stories that the Japanese are short of material, that their war weapons are inferior “Made in Japan,” that the Japanese are already half starving. All these things should have been blown up by the last few months’ disasters. But, coming westward, we are running slap into them again. HUGE RESERVES. The Japanese are existing on a bare minimum, but that’s not weakness. That’s strength. They are still not touching huge reserves they have carefully stored away in the past few years. They bluffed us about shortages by taking up the iron railings around the Imperial Palace, but I know they have ample reserves. They have replaced any other potential shortages as they have gone along. My view is. that their only weaknesses are vulnerability to bombing, inferior replacement capacity, in which we and America have a terrific advantage if we can get the supplies to the front line, and Japan's overweening ambition, which has , overleapt itself by spreading over all the Pacific without the consolidation of gains. SHIPPING SHORTAGE. I incorporate in this last weakness the complementary problem of Japanese shipping shortage, which is even more embarrassing than our own. However, we must get rid of these obsolete, complacent “Made-in-Japan” old wives’ tales which I have watched for a period of 30 years at Far Eastern mess-ups. I and several others whose long residence and knowledge of the language puts us on the most intimate terms with Japanese friends, knew of Pearl Harbour three weeks before it happened. We knew that men were training for three months at Nacoya for the identical moves eventually exploited at Pearl Harbour. On the huge lakes near Nacoya fulldress rehearsals were held, and submarine crews, who obviously' knew what their future suicide task, was to be, wrote bidding their parents farewell. They knew they were going to their deaths. WARNING OF PEARL HARBOUR. Wehks before the disaster a highlyplaced Japanese military man asked me to warn Americans that war was imminent, and that the Japanese would, certainly attack if no compromise was found. But it was hopeless to try to convince anybody that Japan was ready and not bluffing, Similarly we all saw the navy, assembled at Yokohama Bay, take troops down toward Indo-China .though we were not sure that was the destination at the time. I counted more than a hundred warships, but I am no judge whether or not they were obsolete types. I have no idea of Japan’s naval strength. Indeed, the Japanese are so much more careful than we are about letting information slip that I doubt whether official naval observers know much more about it, though we were all quite certain they were considerably stronger than the 5 —5 —3 ratio. PLANES AND TANKS.

But my observations are ' that the Japanese are not nearly as strong in shipbuilding as they are in plane-build-ing and tank-making. There’s a similar haze about air figures, .but many of us believed that the Japanese plans reached a very high figure. They produced also a good type of pilot. Clever national propaganda has inspired every educated young Japanese with a desire to be a pilot and follow the example of the famous General Kato, who claimed 200 victims by the time he was shot down by a Blenheim in Burma. There was official national mourning for Kato. General Djohara, seconded from the army because of a great talent for organisation, has improved the air force considerably, and appaiently solved the secret of co-ordination between the services.