JAPANESE GAINS

Wairarapa Times-Age, 30 June 1942, Page 6

JAPANESE GAINS

IN OCCUPIED AREAS. IMPORTANT SUPPLIES OF MATERIALS. In analysing Japan’s productive capacity, Lawrence L. Rasinger, author of the American Foreign Policy Association Survey and specialist on Far Eastern affairs, declares that “it is probably correct to say that Japan has the prospect of only a moderate . expansion, and that its output of finished products must appeal - almost static in comparison with the economic power of the United States. “It is estimated, for example, that in 1940 Japan produced and imported machine tools valued at 70,000,000 dollars, while the United States had a home production of 750,000,000 dollars’ worth of machine tools in 1941, almost 11 times as much. “From the immediate point of view, however, the smallness or relatively limited prospects of Japanese production are of no great consequence for the outcome of events in South-East Asia, owing to the unpreparedness of the United States in that theatre of war. “Before Pearl Harbour, much weight was placed on Japan’s deficiencies in important raw materials as a deterrent to war with Britain or the United States; there is no reason to doubt, however, that ample forethought was given to the accumulation of stocks.” In connection with the ->economic possibilities of the areas which Japan has conquered, the report says that “it would be a serious mistake to underestimate what the Japanese may be able to do with South-East Asia, which offers many of the raw materials essential for life and industry. First of all, this means food, for the whole area produces not far from onethird of the world’s rice. In the Philippines Manila hemp, sugar, copra and coconut oil are important, but metals are the real prize, “It is sometimes suggested that the scorched-earth policy will prevent Japan from securing significant quantities of raw materials from SouthEast Asia, but it must be remembered that a scorched-earth policy can be truly effective only if the people of the territory Wage guerilla warfare following the initial destruction. “Guerilla warfare can be conducted successfully only by people who are deeply convinced that they are fighting for themselves. In South-East Asia such warfare would require a clear-cut pledge of independence to the inhabitants of areas already acquired, combined with important immediate concessions and future guarantees to populations still outside Japanese control.”