TOKIO POLICY

Wairarapa Times-Age, 10 November 1941, Page 6

TOKIO POLICY

JAPAN KEEPS WAY OPEN FOR ACTION RELATIONS WITH AMERICA ” AND RUSSIA. FACTORS IN THE FAR EAST. The struggle in Tokio towards a more “realistic” approach to Far Eastern problems has its disconcerting aspects, writes Randall Gould in the “Christian Science” Monitor.” Japan once more displays a sudden attitude of quasi-hostility toward Russia, following q phase of calm produced by the effort to re-establish normal relations with the United States. Those in Tokio who had stirred up gusts of wild rumour in the Japanese Press over the issue of whether Japan could let American ships take war munitions to Vladivostok, Russia, were compelled to retreat for the time being because of the obviously realistic necessity for avoiding war with the United States.

Now, seizing upon the perennial Soviet menace, they are setting up a clamour in the opposite direction. Withdrawal of more than 50 members of the staff of the Soviet Embassy in Tokio is clear intimation that there may be more to this than a passing flurry.

“Realism” always can be argued on behalf of a Japanese policy which has as its ultimate object the capitalising of another nation’s weakness.' Of course such an approach is not made frankly, but time after time it has been conducted behind pretexts. Deluded as large sections of the Nipponese public may be, they understand certain actualities very well. They know that it will not pay to fight America at a time when American strength can be brought to bear in the Pacific. They know also that Russia is in a desperate position, which Japan might be able to exploit. So the technique of playing for time with the United States, but exhibiting great sternness toward Russia, has a ready-made publicity appeal at home. The only question is whether an opportune moment has arrived to strike at Russia. READY FOR ACTION. It is unlikely that Tokio authorities feel the time is ripe, but they want to keep a way open for quick action if the hoped for moment arrives. Thus, it is logical that they should keep up a stream of complaint against the alleged presence of floating mines in neighbouring waters, and other offences —real or imagined:—against Japan’s national safety or the safety of individual Japanese. To the Japanese public, this sort of strategy always looks well. The interest of Dai Nippon is being cared for, it is felt. Russia is always a sound target for almost any sort of accusation. A war with Russia would be popular at any moment when it seemed reasonable to believe that disastrous consequences for Japan would not ensue.

It seems likely that war news from the German-Russian fronts is coming to Tokio mostly from German communiques, so far as the Japanese Press is concerned. But Japanese military men are scanning dispatches from every source with the slightest claim to reliability. If Japan goes into conflict with Russia or anybody else, it will be not to satisfy obligations to Germany, but because Tokio is convinced that this course will —at the moment chosen—satisfy its . own interest.

Meanwhile, in Chungking, the tide

of feeling toward the Russians and the Germans has taken a strong set once more in favour of the Russians. On September 16 the last Germans connected’ to the Eurasia Aviation Cor-poration—one-third owned by Lufthansa, two-thirds by the Chinese Gov-ernment-departed for Indo-China. This group comprised five men. An earlier group of five Germans slipped away quietly on August 2. From now on, Eurasia’s German tri-motor commercial aeroplanes will be handled in all respects—including the piloting—by Chinese. EXPERIENCED PILOTS. Chinese pilots have flown the Chung-king-Hong Kong run' since the start of the European war which, of course, excluded German pilots from the Crown Colony. Now the Chinese will operate the entire network stretching over many thousands of miles of free China.

It is probable that there will be an increasing tendency for Eurasia _to work in harmony with the China National Aviation Corporation, some of whose routes, such as ChungkingHong Kong, it duplicates. C.N.A.C. uses American pilots and is' 55 per cent Chinese-owned with Pan American Airways holding the minority interest.

Diminution of German influence, indicated in the case of Eurasia, continues a trend which has been under way since Hitler rather reluctantly ordered China’s German military advisers out of General Chiang Kai-shek’s headquarters. He did this some months after the start of the Sino-Japanese hostilities.

Correspondingly, there is an obvious increase in China of the prestige and influence of the Russians. In spite of Russia’s plight, military supplies have continued to reach China from Russia by various routes, including not only the long cross-country Mongolia trek, but also the Sino-British Burma road. In return, the Chinese are speeding delivery of commodities from free areas. Motor-trucks are being loaded with articles for export to Russia under a barter agreement. These include 18,000 piculs, or about 1200 tons of wool and camel hair; 1000 piculs of raw silk; 2000 piculs of pig bristles; and 60,000 sheepskins. Further shipments are scheduled to follow in rapid succession. It is not improbable that the Chinese have promised aid in materials and also in men if Russia becomes involved in northern warfare with Japan. IMPROVED RELATIONS. . Relations between the Chinese Communist's and the National Government have been improved by the tendency for Russian and Japanese lelations to worsen. It is to be noted that at all times Moscow has insisted on sending supplies to Chungking, not to the Chinese Communists direct, thereby, maintaining as good terms as possible between the two Governments with a long-range eye on potential international developments. Weather may be the greatest deterrent to any outbreak of war between Japan and Russia before spring, even though Russian resistance to

Germany may undergo a sudden weakening which, on the face of it, would justify a Japanese attack. Siberian winters are terrific. _ Despite Japanese toughening under North Manchuria conditions, it seems unlikely that the Japanese could venture into a position of attack before winter against the strong naval forces at Vladivostok. These include five submarine flotillas. Russian troops behind Vladivostok are reported as not less than 40 divisions in the neighbourhood of Japan’s long-plotted’ western frontier, the Lake Baikal region. Winter conditions would be little or no deterrent in the way of Soviet bombing of Osaka, Yokohama, and Tokio from Vladivostok, and Japan always has quailed at the thought of that kind of attack.

Finally, as has been indicated, no realistic Japanese estimate can envisage war with the United States at this time. The statement may be extended to include the fact that no realistic Japanese estimate of war with Russia can leave the United States out of consideration. It is true that there has been a recent lessening of tension between Washington and Tokio, but that was because Japan was willing to “sing small,” despite the smart of American economic sanctions.

The Japanese cannot be sure that if they get into war with Russia, this will not somehow involve war with America. No direct line toward that end exists, yet the possibility is haunting.