Wairarapa Times-Age MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 1941. JAPAN HANGS IN DOUBT.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 27 October 1941, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 1941. JAPAN HANGS IN DOUBT.

ACCORDING to a well-known radio commentator, the new Japanese Government finds itself in a painful dilemma—one occasioned by reports from its own officers, sent as observers to the Eastern front, which cast doubts on the likelihood of German victory. In fact, however, Japan’s problems are still more complex than this statement would imply. It mat- betaken for granted that Japanese militarists would like very well to participate in the triumph and the spoils of a German victory over Russia, but there are two main grounds on which they may reasonably hesitate to base their policy on these aspirations.

One of these is the continued presence of strong and wellequipped Russian forces in Siberia and the prospect that, even if the Soviet armies have to yield some further ground in face of the onslaught on which Germany is staking so much, Russia may still be able to withstand attacks in both East and West.

Then again, even if Japanese expectations of German victory were more confident than perhaps they are, account would have to be taken of the dangers to Japan that would arise from the presence of German troops and German warplanes in Vladivostok. 111-concealed Japanese worry over this possibility, a Shanghai correspondent of the “Christian Science Monitor” wrote recently, was one of the most striking things, to Britons and Americans in the Far East, about the German attack on Russia.

To those who have watched German-Japanese relations for the last few years (the correspondent added) there has never been any doubt over the fact that either nation, despite the hours of laudatory speeches, the miles of parades and the reams of publicity, has ever had anything but suspicion of the other. On top of that is a German contempt for Japan that is hardly disguised. Both have profited by the Tripartite Pact in some degree, but neither has done anything for the other out of respect or friendship and each would abandon the other in a moment for personal profit.

What Japan probably would like most to see, the same writer states, would be a Russia battered by the German Army, ablaze with revolt.

Then (he observed) they want Russian Siberia to break its ties with the home Government and declare an independence which would open the way lor Japanese “co-operation,” followed by ultimate domination. Britain and America, meanwhile, would be so concerned by a Germany turning all its strength westward that they would be unable to make any effective move to check Japanese moves in the South Seas.

Fortunately there is little enough likelihood of Japanese hopes of this kind being realised. In spite of the admittedly critical situation, particularly on the southern section of the Eastern front, good reasons appear for unabated faith in the ability alike of the Russian nation and armies to maintain their cohesion and resisting power.

Japan, on the other hand, has her grounds for anxiety irrespective of what the outcome of the war in Russia may be. In either event, unless, so far as the Allies are concerned, she abates in the' meantime her aggressive policy and aims, she is liable to find hostile aircraft stationed within comparatively easy striking range of her principal cities and bases. It further complicates her position and outlook that American, British and Dutch economic reprisals have deprived Japan of further supplies of oil, metals and other vital, war and civil requirements and have killed a considerable part of her export trade. With Japan thus weakened, and with Russia maintaining in Siberia forces that are stated to have been little weakened, the defences of the English-speaking nations in the Far East are being strengthened day by day.

Whether in these circumstances Japan will be restrained from further aggression, or will plunge desperately in north or south, or, as is now suggested, in; an attempt to cut the Burma Road, is at the moment an entirely open question. It remains true, in any case, that her only safe and sane policy is to renounce aggression and the spoils- of aggression and to seek agreement on honest terms with the Allied nations. Iler prospects of achieving her aims by methods either of violence or blackmail evidently are not improving.