NORTH OR SOUTH

Wairarapa Times-Age, 26 August 1941, Page 6

NORTH OR SOUTH

WHERE WILL JAPAN MOVE? SOME BASIC MILITARY FACTS. A WAR WEARY NATION Is Japan's occupation of Indo-China a screen for possible movement in the opposite direction—an attack on Soviet Russia? asks a military expert in the “Christian Science Monitor.” Is the Indo-China adventure actually the first step in a drive to dominate the South Pacific? These two questions have become uppermost as Nippon’s transports unload their troops at Saigon and Japan's navy moves into Cam Ranh Bay. The answers—the discovery of the real objectives of Japan's policy—are not to be had from the lips of' Tokio’s statesmen. But a great deal can bo deduced from the basic military facts. These show the distinct limits which Japan is approaching from its already over-expanded strategy. Japan can be considered as the third most war-weary nation _in the. world, treading close in the footsteps of Italy and Spain. Faced with the depressing conditions of a Chinese adventure which has employed more than 1,250,000 men for five years, has sapped its economic strength, and debased an already low social structure, Nippon’s, problem has been serious. The Japanese Army at present has an approximate fighting strength of 57 divisions, and a global strength of 1,800,000 men, which cannot be far supplemented. About 66 divisions is given as the most that Japan could raise, in spite of its available manpower, because of limitations of armament and supply. The present divisions are distributed far and wide in a theatre larger, in fact, than the Mediterranean area. Thirty-seven Japanese divisions are in China —three of these in the Canton sector. Ten more are in Manchukuo. Two are in Korea. One is in Sakhalin. Four or five more divisions are in the metropolitan area of Japan itself. Three or four are gathered at Hainan Island or arc on the way to Indo-China. There are indications that some shifting of strength towards Manchukuo is on the way. Increased mobilisation in Japan may or may not be replacements for existing forces, although this is more probable than that new'units are being formed. If the latter be true, such new units are for the future, not for any fighting today. FORCES MOBILISE. Japanese in Peiping, China, told the Associated Press that they have heard that the Japanese command is gathering in Manchukuo and North China forces which eventually will total 2,000,000 men and 5000 aeroplanes for a determined effort to break Russian power in the Far East when the opportune time comes. Facing Japan now in Siberia are some 26 Russian divisions of the two Red banner armies; a force somewhat reduced from the original. German reports indicate that several of the 31 divisions normally east of the Urals have been identified on the western theatre. This force is, however, still too great for Japan to tackle in a serious way unless Russia becomes

more and more involved, for Japan cannot take many of her troops out ol China without disaster. Under these conditions, it would seem improbable that Japan will undertake any serious offensive beyond Indo-China at present. The elimination of Singapore, Straits Settlements, is essential to Tokio before any widespread operations can take place. Acquisition of air bases in Indo-China is one step towards that movement, but the other elements for success appear to be lacking for the moment. As for the Burma Road, it must not be forgotten, that Japan’s present position in Northern Indo-China is much nearer to China’s supply line than the present southern move. Even its newest move in Burma — reportedly the demanding of bases and raw materials —is but a variant of the Indo-China coup. It will add to Japan's sources of supply. But an attack on Rangoon, Burma, would be necessary before Japan could do much more to threaten the Burma Road than it already can do from its present

bases. And this appears, at the moment, outside the scope of Japans efforts to gain as much as it can without outright conflict. NAVY WAITS ACTION. Meanwhile, the Japanese Navy, untouched by war, is anxious for action. It is the navy which is for the moment, making the main occupation in Indo-China, with a very small force of army troops occupying key points such as air fields.

But this is very different from embroiling their nation with the one force Japan fears —the United States battle fleet. The quick apologies for the Tutuila incident show how little Nippon wants conflict, with America. For opportunist Japan, making hay while Hitler's sun shines, finds itself in some serious difficulties in balancing the various factors which push it in several directions at once. It faces the combined strain of Nazi pressure and of its own desires and necessities. In a fashion typically Japanese, it combines expediency and face-sav-ing. Nevertheless, it is a straddle, and also a gamble. Doubting its partners, as well it may, Japan nevertheless must protect the stakes it already has shoved into the pot. It has done it just as it has done similar things in the past, taking the middle road, but pushing up that middle road as far and as fast as possible. Japan now has a potential naval base —Cam Ranh Bay—and several excellent air fields in what was once Britain’s domain, the South China Sea. SUPPLY LINE FLANKED. It may be considered probable that Britain will not react for the present to this Japanese move. However, an offensive to gobble up the Netherlands East Indies doubtless would bring conflict. Such an offensive must operate along a supply line flanked by the Philippines on one side and the Singapore-Hong Kong line on the other, while a Russian air and submarine bugaboo in the home waters of the Sea of Japan complicates matters.

Weighing these factors, Japan's military men must keep an anxious eye cocked for future developments the Russo-German struggle on which may depend Japan’s very future. The reversal of form in that theatre, which has thrown all military estimates askew for the moment, may not be permanent. Nevertheless, it is a serious barrier to Axis objectives, both Occidental and Oriental. If, however, German arms should make progress at last, there may be some reason to believe that Japan will take the final step. Under such conditions the latest bombing of an American gunboat could take on an entirely different significance.