Wairarapa Times-Age THURSDAY, JANUARY 9, 1941. A QUESTION OF INITIATIVE.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 9 January 1941, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age THURSDAY, JANUARY 9, 1941. A QUESTION OF INITIATIVE.

WHETHER X azi Germany intends; to launch a military drive through the Balkans, either in the near future, or when the northern spring opens, is still a question. Recent reports on the subject have been more contradictory than illuminating and the total effect of many of them is to create a state of uncertainty. It may be assumed with some confidence, however, that this does not apply to news of the definite stand taken by Turkey. A London cablegram yesterday quoted a message from Istanbul which stated that officials had reaffirmed that if German forces are moved across Bulgaria to attack Greece. Turkey will fight. Side by side with this it was announced from Ankara that the Turkish National Assembly had passed a new Bill prolonging service for all classes under arms. While they arc in themselves to be welcomed, these indications of Turkey’s determination to resist German aggression, are not without their suggestive bearing also on the otherwise undisclosed attitude of Soviet Russia. Reports emphasising the desire of Bulgaria to remain neutral and speaking of a conflict in that country between those'favouring Germany and the supporters of Soviet Russia are of doubt fid value, but Turkey certainly desires a good understanding with Russia and it is likely that she has received assurances that her determination to withstand Nazi aggression is not distasteful to the Soviet. The principal reason for believing that Germany is contemplating military action in the Balkans appears in the pressure that is being applied to Bulgaria. The visit ot the Bulgarian Prime Minister to Austria is a sequel to earlier developments not less significant. A month or two ago, King Boris of Bulgaria went to Germany at the “invitation” of Hitler, following in the footsteps of a number of ill-starred rulers ami statesmen who have made similar visits to the undoing ol their respective countries. It has been said that King' Boris, like others who preceded him. no doubt received his instructions and that apparently Im is to let the Gormans nst* his land as a military highway. No one can suppose that the King of Bulgaria, or any large proportion of his subjects, relish the prospect thus opened up. hut they have little enough choice in the matter. Bulgaria is a poor country, without petroleum or iron. She has no armament industry of any importance and her army is small and poorly equipped. With strong German forces massed in the neighbouring territory of Rumania, the Bulgarian Government no doubt feels that it can do nothing else than submit to the demands of the Nazi dictatorship. Should Russia take a firm stand against German penetration of the Balkans, the position and outlook of course would be altered vitally. Although the Bulgarians feel some gratitude to Germany for having helped them to recover the Southern Dobruja. they have, as Slavs, a strong feeling of kinship with Russia and no doubt would gladly accept the leadership ol that country in the present emergency. The Soviet, however, has yet to indicate that it has any intention of opposing a German passage through the Balkans. M. Stalin and his colleagues are perhaps hoping to have a later and easier opportunity of dealing with Germany when that country has been weakened by an unwise and unprofitable dispersion of its fighting forces. From the standpoint of the Nazi dictatorship, the prospects of action in and beyond South-Eastern Europe are by no means so attractive and promising as they may have appeared to be only a month or two ago. When Italy was still to all appearance firm on her feet, the Nazis may well have entertained hopes of driving through Turkey, with or wit bout-that country s permission, towards the Iraq oil wells and the vital Syrian roads, by way of which they might have hoped to develop an attack on the British forces in Palestine and Egypt, in cooperation with the Italian thrust from Libya, 'flic smashing defeats inflicted on the Italians in the Western Desert and by the Greeks in Albania have greatly altered tin* situation and the possibilities it holds.

It may be, however, that Germany is still inclined to undertake a Balkan adventure, mainly with a view to propping up her jackal idly anti as part of the policy of keeping Italy in subjection and control. If she had to reckon only with Greece, Germany no doubt would be able to count with some confidence upon recovering all that has been lost in Albania. Greece, however, is far enough from being isolated and unsupported. Besides bringing Turkey into the field, any concentration of German air and other forces brought against Greece by way df Bulgaria no doubt will be met by u reinforcement of the Royal Air Foret* squadrons already operating from Greek bases. It is of great importance also that the active alliance with Greece has enabled the Navy to strengthen enormously its grip on the Eastern Mediterranean. As events are moving at present in Libya and in Albania, it is very possible, too. that in tin* near future Germany may find herself loss than ever faced by favourable opportunities for action in Routh-Eastern Europe,

Not so very long ago. it appeared to he in the power ol the Nazi dictatorship to exercise a dangerous iniliafive in m-lion in and beyond the Balkans. Il seems ai least as likely now that if Germany does launch an offensive through Bulgaria, she may find herself involved, to her peril, in the war on two fronts which her strategists have always feared. Bui for the imminently threatened collapse of their junior partner, the Nazis might reasonably be expected to prefer the poliev of eoiieentraling ail their resources on the vital conflict in Western Europe, which is going by no means well from their point of view. They have to reckon in any case on tho possible exercise by Britain and her allies of an initiative to which the way is being opened by the valiant eiVoris of the Greeks and the brilliant achievements of the Imperial and allied forces under General Waved in Libya.

THE NAZIS AND VICHY. A SSUMING that it implies something better than mere temporcmig on the par' of Marshal Petain and his colleagues. the state of atla.rs at Vichy .about which the Germans are now complaining volubly ■> to be welcomed unreservedly The vital questi<m at stake is whether the French Empire and what is left of the French Fleet are or are not to be betrayed into the hands of the Nazis ami placed completely al their disposal. It is no > ! oubt because they Mill have hopes of securmp th:-, betrayal, or some important part of it. that the Nazis have been content thus far to scheme fur such a reconstruct ii n of the French Government as would meet their desires. The true policy of hope for France plainly is to defy the Nans. let them do their worst in metropolitan France, and .-blow the French colon w-; m North and West .Africa and elsewhere and all that can be saved < f French land, sea and air forces to re-enter the war for liberty I'm . - copied France is at the mercy of the invaders, but the colonics arc not and by the: time it should be clear to .Marshal Petain and tit-re of h< ■; colleagues who have the ultimate interest of France . t heart that nt!,:-..; whatever is to be gained by further yielding "<> the .Nazis There is not much doubt that a decision allowing the French, colonies to re-enter the war would be approved by a wry L.rjy p: tb..ii -,.f the French people now under the Nazi heel Apparently credible reports declare that it is more and more widely r«-c.>gm'ed m met:n France that the only hope of ultimate liberation m the victory > f Britain and her Alin- The j >hcy of acti n that » still pm ible I . t tin- more commend itself m view < f 'he stalemerit <.f the new Aiimnc n Ambassador to France, Admiral Leahy, that it will be made clear the French Government that "he United State-. G vi ■ .a t;• ■: >*’< <: :i the world ituaiion. meiudmt; th. F. r E. t. :.r<! tl.at !l-:< . .. t ! a doubt French ir.iniF that the Viiitoi St. i-.ah'.;' it:.’...!; '. . the maximum of <-ur pu-..-.ibi!:i;c-. " It I. m-t unL'-ielv t the .hi.-. ..! i.! .Admiral Leahy the Nazi’. iu.ve f.amd .; rca-.. n for _• hmg th«-.r d< v. .th the V.cl.y Government rabidly a v. nciwivr;