Wairarapa Times-Age TUESDAY, OCTOBER 22, 1940. PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 22 October 1940, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age TUESDAY, OCTOBER 22, 1940. PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS.

QN November 3. the people of the United States are to cast their votes in Presidential and Congressional elections. So far as tlie contest for the Presidency is concerned it seenm increasingly probable that Mr Roosevelt, in spite of the handicap under which be is supposed to labour as a candidate seeking a third term, will defeat his Republican opponent. In the days immediately following the party nominations, many experienced commentators in the United States frankly were reluctant, to venture an opinion as to the probable outcome of the election. A number of them appeared to regard the prospects as decidedly open and uncertain. Now, however, it is held by a considerable body of more or less authoritative opinion that Mr Roosevelt will’win by a comfortable majority, though it is also believed widely that his majority will be considerably smaller than it . was in 1936, when iie was supported by 46 States and his Republican opponent by only two, the distribution of electoral votes being 023 for Roosevelt and eight for Landon. As long ago as the middle of last month, the “Fortune” poll, one oiMhe unofficial checks of public opinion which have gained a considerable vogue in the United States, indicated that Ff the elections had been held at that time Mr Roosevelt would have received 54.6 of the vote and Mr Willkie 35.6 per; cent.' In the 1936 election, the Gallup poll showed early in September 20 States supporting Mr Landon, and 28 supporting Mr Roosevelt. In weekly returns from that time onward, the Gallup poll showed a steady transfer of support from Mr Landon to his opponent until October 25 and then a rapid acceleration of the same trend. The Gallup figures on November 1, 1936, were seven States for Mr Landon and 41 for Mr Roosevelt. The actual figures in the election held two days later were, as has been me?H.ioned, two States for Mr Landon and 46 for Mr Roosevelt. It has been suggested that these unofficial estimates of voting strength do something towards shaping opinion as well as recording it. A staff correspondent of the “Christian Science Monitor,” writing early last month, observed on this subject:— A poll which consistently shows that one side or the other is ahead is apt to capture the “me-too” vote for the leading candidate. There seem to be people in every community who want to be on the winning side and to have the prestige that comes from picking a winner. No very recent figures of “Fortune” or Gallup polls on the present Presidential contest have been cabled, but it'has been stated freely of late that on the whole things have gone badly with the Republican aspirant. In anything like normal and quiet times, the fact that he is seeking election for a third term undoubtedly would have told very heavily against Mr Roosevelt and. might easily have made his success impossible. Against this, however, is to be set the fact that the times are far from normal and that the United States is facing an extraordinary emergency. It was said that at the Democratic Convention no other candidate than Air Roosevelt could have been nominated and it seems likely that the same feeling may determine the American nation’s choice of its President for the next four years. Though it has been employed freely in regard to the Presidential contest, the old saw about the folly of swapping horses in mid-stream really falls considerably short of stating the case. It is a matter of retaining a tried leader, whom the nation time and again in critical days has been glad to follow, or exchanging him for a leader wholly untried. To all appearance domestic issues in the United States have been dwarfed, and thrust into the background by issues of international policy. Indeed, the line of division between the New Dealers and their opponents in financial and economic policy does not seem to have been by any means clearly drawn. Mr Willkie has proclaimed in bold and sounding generalities that he is intent on re-establishing American democracy, and it has been suggested on his behalf that the Democratic Government is buying support by its lavish expenditure on relief and other projects. ’Whether, however, a Republican President and Congress would make any very drastic changes in the financial and economic policies now developed in the United States seems rather doubtful. As regards the international issues which are in the forefront, Mr ’Willkie has found himself in the unsatisfactory position, from his standpoint, of being little more than an echo to his opponent. He has found nothing better to do than support the main lines of the foreign policy developed by Mr Roosevelt and in such criticism as he has offered has laid himself open in some degree to the charge of raising difficulties over relatively unimportant details. In Mr Willkie’s later tactics there have been signs of at least an element of flurry. For .instance his recent contention that aid to Britain was being delayed needlessly and should be speeded up appears to have been backed poorly by anything in the nature of positive suggestion and may be expected to fall correspondingly flat. Mr Willkie has been unfortunate, too, in being offered the support, in some instances against his express repudiation, of reactionary and other elements, which plainly stand opposed to the ruling weight and trend of American public opinion. One important question on which little light has been, cast is that of the extent to which the apparently rifling trend in the Presidential election will affect and influence the voting for Congressional candidates. It seems highly probable that Mr Roosevelt will be re-elected as President, but it remains'to be seen whether he will be given, the support of adequate majorities in Congress—particularly in the House of Representatives, which is re-elected as a 'whole at each biennial election, together with only one-third of the Senate.