Wairarapa Times-Age MONDAY, AUGUST 26, 1940. PORTENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 26 August 1940, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age MONDAY, AUGUST 26, 1940. PORTENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

JT seems very probable, as a London commentator has said, that the state of tension between Italy and Greece will reach its climax before many days have passed. A number of recent events, and rabidly abusive outpourings by the controlled Italian Press appear, indeed, to be hardly open to any other explanation than that Italy has made up her mind to attack Greece. There has been some backing and filling, but the ruling tendency plainly is towards war. It was perhaps hoped that' 1 the sinking of the Greek cruiser Helle, now shown to have been the act of an Italian submarine, would provoke Greece into declaring war, but indications at present are that the Italian dictatorship is prepared itself to take the initiative if its intended victim cannot be goaded into doing so. While Greece naturally is anxious to avoid being drawn into the war. her Government has declared that she will defend herself against attack and Britain is pledged, in that event, to give Greece all the support in her power. Action no doubt will, be taken speedily by the British fleet and air forces in the Eastern .Mediterranean, particularly should the Italians include the Greek islands of Crete and Corfu in their initial objectives. Italian aggression against Greece, however, almost certainly would lead to a wide extension of the war in the Aliddle East and the possibilities raised are somewhat complex. Some of them as yet are quite undetermined. One view of the matter is that in preparing to attack Greece, Mussolini hopes to create a. diversion which will, divide the available British forces and lighten to some extent the problems by which he is faced in his long-threatened invasion of Egypt. It seems rather unlikely, however, that Italy would be permitted to take action in Greece or elsewhere in the Balkans without the support and connivance of its senior partner in the Axis. In that event the present threat to Greece would imply also a threat to Turkey and to other areas in the Aliddle East. As a consequence it would imply that the Axis Powers feel themselves free to extend aggression unchecked in and through the Balkans. No doubt German, as well as Italian forces could be made available for an attack on Turkey as well as on Greece, but whether the Axis Powers can count upon being able to pursue their schemes unhindered in and through the Balkans is another question. Hungary is subservient to Germany and Rumania also, though she is still offering some opposition to the Hungarian claims to Transylvania, no doubt is effectively dominated by the Axis. The attitude of Bulgaria is somewhat uncertain. Turkey, like Greece, has declared her determination to resist aggression.

The position as a whole will not be defined clearly, however, until the Soviet has shown its hand. Thus far, while astutely making the most of every opportunity to extend and buttress her frontiers in Poland, the Baltic zone and in the Balkans, Russia has made a great show of friendship with Germany. In a cablegram on Saturday, the Aloscow newspaper “Izvestia” was quoted as stating, in a review of the first year of the Russo-German non-aggression pact, that Russia was helping Germany to beat- the British blockade by supplying raw materials in return for German industrial and armaments production, that commerce between the two nations was now greater than at any time since the last war and that: “The treaty was a most important factor for peace and marked a turning point in the history of all Europe—and not Europe alone.” This is in keeping with the official attitude of the Soviet, but any explicit information that is obtainable on the subject goes to show that the volume of trade between Russia and Germany is extremely limited, partly though not wholly on account of a lack of transport facilities. It is still more important and more significant that the methodical strengthening of Russia’s European frontiers, and the intensified war preparations on which the Soviet is concentrating, are not reasonably to be regarded as anything else than preparations to cope with an ultimate attack by Nazi Germany. While Stalin and his colleagues officially’ are on. most friendly terms with Germany, apparently well-informed observers declare that a deep measure of alarm is felt in Russia over the military success the Nazis have gained in Western Europe and that there can bo, in the words of one correspondent, “little doubt as to whom the Russians fear.” Russian and German antagonism in the Balkans is far from having been stilled with the Russian recovery of Bessarabia. On account both of its concern for Russian security and of its own unsatisfied ambitions in South-Eastern Europe, the' Soviet, may be expected to look with a jealous and uneasy eye upon any extension of Axis aggression in the Balkans. At the same time Germany can hardly afford, as matters stand, to disregard the Russian attitude, or to allow Italy to do so. The position and outlook as a whole are extremely complicated, but in view of Italy’s blustering and menacing tactics towards Greece it seems likely to be cleared up to a considerable extent very shortly.