AGGRESSORS AT ODDS.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 12 August 1940, Page 4

AGGRESSORS AT ODDS.

f)N the upper surface of events, the principal recent development in the Balkans has been the collapse of Rumanian resistance to the territorial demands of Russia, and now of Hungary and Bulgaria. Having handed over Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina to the Soviet, King Carol and his Govern-

men! are resigned to surrendering territory also to their * country’s Balkan neighbours, although apparently it is hoped that the Axis Powers, with whom the present rulers of Rumania have definitely east in their lot, will set some limit to Hungarian and Bulgarian demands. Behind these immediate events, however, an intense diplomatic, battle evidently is in progress between Russia and Germany. The Italian dictatorship, long ambitious of acquiring or dominating the Adriatic coastal zone of Yugoslavia, probably has ceased to count as a factor of any great importance in the coldest that is in progress. The main question seems to be whether Russia or Germany is to gain the more' advantageous position from which to pursue further schemes of aggrandisement when opportunity serves. The position meantime reached is somewhat indecisive. While the Soviet has secured tangible gains in the occupation of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina, the transfer now in prospect of the whole or part of Transylvania from Rumania Io Hungary will not be welcomed by Russia. Hungary is already very completely under Nazi domination and with her added territory she will be not so much a buffer State between Bnssia and Germany as an important Nazi outpost. The restoration of I he Dobruja to Bulgaria, which is reported today to have been agreed upon, is in a different category, for both Bulgaria and Yugoslavia are leaning much more to Russia than to Germany in the present Balkan ferment. The concession made to Bulgaria no doubt is regarded by the Nazi mentors of Rumania as one necessary means of staving off meantime an open rupture with Russia.

In their total effect, the changes that have occurred or are now in prospect in the Balkans bring Germany and Russia more obviously than ever into competition, with the Balkan States once again playing the part of pawns in. the game of power politics. A.s their own wisest leaders have recognised, these States would best safeguard their interests and security by reaching an amicable settlement of their differences and uniting in a federal or quasi-l'ederal organisation. In the early months of this year it was hoped that the foundations of agreement on these lines had been laid, but it is now clear that the hopes lacked substance and that the Balkans are exposed as dangerously as ever to the play of external aggression and intrigue.

Carefully as they both seem to be avoiding an open break for the time being, Russia and Germany are definitely and completely al odds in the Balkans, and an extraordinary moditicalion and transformation of aims would be needed to abate their antagonism as lime goes on. Meantime, though they are not at war. they are far from being inactive. Germany is doing her utmost to bring an enlarged Hungary and a reduced Rumania completely under her control, but Soviet agents are at work among Ihe discontented Rumanian peasants and this may offset much that the Nazis have accomplished in their dealings with King Carol and his advisers.

An optimistic view of the situation as it is developing was taken recently by the organ of the Turkish People’s Party, the Instanbul newspaper “Tan.” when it observed that: “II is not impossible that Britain will arrange an alliance with Moscow, and that necessity will force M. Stalin into an alliance with Turkey.” There is little enough prospect at present of agreement and co-operation between Britain and Russia, and for Turkey an alliance with Russia might easily mean undesirable and dangerous domination by the Soviet. On the oilier hand, lhere should he a considerable present element of safety in the fact that Germany and. Bussia are so directly and definitely opposed to one another in their schemes of aggression and expansion in and beyond the Balkans. This may mean <iikl should mean that neither of the aggressors can iliake a decisive forward move wilhoul being opposed by the other.