DURATION OF WAR

Wairarapa Times-Age, 13 March 1940, Page 6

DURATION OF WAR

PETROL A MAJOR. FACTOR. One of the major factors in any calculations regarding the duration of the war is Germany's command of petrol supplies, says the "Spectator.” It is a subject on which authoritative information is naturally lacking, and various estimates encouraging to the Allies have been current. It would be well to measure some of them against the conclusions reached by the writer of an exhaustive article on Germany's oil supplies in the current issue of the "Bulletin of International News.” The salient fact is that Germany lias for years been acquiring more petroleum Ilian she consumed: in 1936, for example, the surplus was 1,500,()()() tons, and the general conclusion is that, some six or seven million tons may] have been stored in lhe last three and a-half years. How far will Germany have to draw on that, and how long (in consequence) will it last her'.' Al present, with the war static, and severe economy in civil use, she is probably increasing rather than depleting her reserves. .Her war-time consumption in an active year is put at 12,000.000 tons. Nearly 90 per cent of Germany's imports are being stopped by the Allied blockade, and her home production seems still to be below even peace-time requirements, which would be today about 6.500.000 tons. The deficiency can only be made up by Russia and Rumania, together with some increase <>f home production. At the best the German stocks might last two years; but the best is unlikely—they| will more probably be exhausted ini little over a year—a year, of course, of far more active warfare than prevails at present.