Wiararapa Times-Age THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 1940. ON GUARD IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 15 February 1940, Page 6

Wiararapa Times-Age THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 1940. ON GUARD IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

A SENSIBLE view of what is implied in the concentration 01. powerful Allied armies in the Middle East—armies of which Australian and Now Zealand forces now form part —was taken by the “New York Times’’ in an article quoted in one ol yesterday’s cablegrams. Discounting suggestions of a vast Allied offensive, the American journal observed: — The Allied leaders have not indicated, that they are willing to make that dangerous gamble unless someone else attacks first. The expedition rather seems to be a variety of insurance against a spread of the war. Without firing a shot it can act as a terrible warning to Russia and Germany, should either be tempted to strike in the Near East. As matters stand neutral States intervene between the Allied armies in the Middle East aiid the forces, both German and Russian, concentrated on the fringes of the Balkans, and Russian forces in areas further east. Since wanton aggression has no place in the policy of the Allies, it may be taken lor granted that they will open no vast offensive in the Balkans or elsewhere in areas where peace, now obtains. In the event, however, of an enemy attack on neutral States in the Balkans or further east, the position and outlook would be instantly and dramatically changed. It is, of course,'against the danger of such an onslaught that the Allies have assembled and are building up great forces in Egypt, Palestine and Syria. Should the danger develop, it. cannot be doubted that decisive action will be taken, but. as to the lines that action would follow, a considerable scope for conjecture as yet remains open. The principal immediate danger probably is that Germany or Russia, or both these countries in combination, may attack Rumania, ft was affirmed recently by the German Foreign Minister, Herr von Ribbentrop, that:— " 1 Neither Germany nor Russia has the slightest intention of carrying the war into the Balkans. Both Powers are bending every effort to spare that section of Europe the horror of war. In light of experience, this statement is wholly unconvincing and indeed might well be regarded rather as embodying a threat than as conveying an assurance. Had Germany really intended to respect the independence and integrity of the Balkan States, Herr von Ribbentrop’s affirmation would have been at least superfluous. A. recent disclaimer by the Soviet of any intention of making aggressive demands on Rumania also is ill-calculated 1o carry convict ion. It is not only .by rhe Allied democracies that the good faith of the Nazi'anil Soviet dictatorships with regard to the Balkans is regarded with deep suspicion. For instance it is certainly hot in fear of Allied action that Italy is hurriedly fortifying her frontiers facing Germany and Yugoslavia, the Inline Province and also the Brenner Pass zone.” It is one of the redeeming features of the situation that Italy, in spite of her Axis alliance, apparently is bound as a matter of selfpreservation to withstand aggression by either Germany or Russia in the Balkans.

Whatever Italy may do,‘the Allies most certainly may be expected to take vigorous action against any extension of the war by Germany (with or without Russian aid or countenance) into South-Eastern Europe and areas beyond. With their own vital interests Io defend in the Near and Middle East, Britain and Erance are pledged to defend Greece ami Rumania against aggression and entered in October last into an alliance with Turkey. Under that alliance, Turkey.obtained from France and Britain unconditional pledges of support against aggression from any quarter. Sim agreed.to assist the Adies if aggression by any Power led to war in the Mediterranean, or if they were compelled Io carry out their pledges to protect Rumania or Greece. There was a proviso—one that presumably would become inoperative in the event of Russian aggression—that Turkey could not he compelled to take pari in war against Russia.

Tile outlook is made 1 hrealening, not only by the policy of ruthless and unscrupulous aggression to which Germany and Russia are committed, but by unhealed divisions between the Balkan Slates. Following on a conference of the Balkan Entente Powers —Turkey, Greece, Rumania and Yugoslavia—it was reported some ten days ago that an agreement had been reached to preserve peace in the common interests of the member States, to foster the closest co-operation of the member States within the framework ol' the Balkan Entente, and so forth.

It counts for a great deal, however that Hungary and Bulgaria both cherish grudges ami grievances against their Balkan neighbours. Hungary demands the return of Transylvania ami other territories from Rumania. Bulgaria demands (lie return from Rumania of the Dobrnja territory, at the mouth of the Danube a'nd from her southern neighbours of Thracian territory which formerly gave her access to the Aegean.

Tin* danger appears that Germany ami Russia may be able Io play for their own ends upon these unsettled disputes between the Balkan States. On the other hand, the immediate scope for action available Io the Allies in the event of the war being extended into the Balkans would be affe/led materially by the extent to which the Balkan Slates were prepared Io combine in their common interests. At a minimum however, the Allies, if they tire called upon Io resist enemy aggression in the Near East, should be able Io count upon a base of operations in Thrace ami upon naval ami other access to the Black Sea by way ol' the Dardanelles and the Sea of Marmora. With a regenerated Turkey as their ally, Britain and Fraiwo will be vastly belter placed in any campaign that may open in the Near East than they were in the last wgr