Wairarapa Times-Age SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 1940. THE OIL PROBLEM.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 3 February 1940, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 1940. THE OIL PROBLEM.

■RECENT cable messages have suggested that the kej to the 1 puzzle of where Germany may strike next may bo oun ' in her pressing need for raw materials, particu Oll ; ( French authority, General Serrigny has pointed ot t ha war will be based upon mechanical engines and, both ( battlefield and in the rear, the petrol necessary lor those ongu'<> will nto fib preponderab role.” In 1938 GtnMW 2,549.00 b tons of fuel and used 7,;>70,000 tons In ’ , ' year of the war she would have produced at the ontsi k 3,000,000 tons, but may need anything from 20,000 01) • upward, tier,..any had, before the war, p»n two re months plaee time supplies in storage tanks, estimated at SOOO, 000 tons. The exports of Rumania and Russia m iota 5 100,000 tons, and though supplies from the latter may iner . slio’htlv, this would be more than offset by the, difficult transport and a marked diminution in Rumania s output since te peak in 1936. Germany has complained to tho-Bumaman Government that the oil she is getting is snfl wtent. ..either in quantity nor quality, anti Rumania has replied that al least dll per cent of her total output is needed for her own pm pose.. Fortv ner cent of her 1938 production would reduce Rumania s SoitSble surplus from 4,000.000 tons to tons but her output has progressively diminished. since 1936, and, th i fore, even the latter figure -would bo high.

Poland mav he disregarded, as her wells were extensively sabotaged hr the retreating Poles,' and are likely to he out ol commission for a long time. Tt is becoming apparent that unless something is done to ease the situation Germany s resorte stocks will have been exhausted in seven or eight months. In the meantime Germany must fake steps to remedy the shortage. The question arises as to whether Russia would he able to increase her output and thus assist Germany Tn one district Russia has begun to do this, aiming to reach full production in 194° Tt will however, be unlikely that such extra supplies would reach Germany in any quantities. Distance, insufficient rail tank-ears, and dilapidation of rolling stock and rails on both sides of the border would effectively prevent transportation of large quantities by land. By sea the products loi Germany would have to go in a cumbrous fashion by barge up .the Danube. As the barge method is slow and as the Danube is frozen in winter, it is doubtful whether more than a lew hundred thousand tons could get up each year.

Germany might, with the benevolent assistance of Russia, commandeer Rumania. Placing the political diillenllies ol such a manoeuvre on one side, the oilfields would almost certainly be damaged before the attacking force could lay its hands upon them Tn actual fact, even if Germany were to seize the Rumanian oil wells, the quantity she would gel would not be nearly enough Io enable her to .carry on operations on a lull scale.' The ''most Germany could obtain from Rumania by peaceful trading would be some 2.500.0(10 tons. With a tremendous amount of pressure it is barely possible that Italy. Hungary and Yugoslavia might stave off Germany's evil hour for a" month or two, and experimentation with substitute fuels mav take her a little further, but the end cannot be delayed long past the present year.

A cablegram from London today states: “On the eve of the meeting , 'of the Balkan Entente Council at Belgrade, the German Poroigu Minister, Herr von Ribbentrop, interviewed in Berlin by the Greek' Press, declared that neither Germany nor Russia’had the slightest intention of carrying the war Io the Balkans. Both were bending every ellort Io spare that section of Europe the horror of war.” This announcement, will doubtless bo received with suspicion by the Balkan Rowers who know well enough that the fate of Boland would bo theirs if Germany and Russia wore in a position Io bring that about. Xo trust can be placed in Germany who only makes a promise in order to break it when it suits her. Tim temptation of the Rumanian oil wells may yet bring the war to the Balkans,