Wairarapa Times-Age FRIDAY, OCTOBER 13, 1939. AN UNDETERMINED WAR FACTOR.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 13 October 1939, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age FRIDAY, OCTOBER 13, 1939. AN UNDETERMINED WAR FACTOR.

WHAT is being called the Soviet advance in the Baltic the imposition of terms on the Baltic States which hare made them military outposts of Russia, and now the pie. ‘ , to Finland of analogous demands—is not only of seiioi. < painful interest to the countries immediately co ’ lceip ® c ’. .! raises questions of vital concern to all Europe and to muc ■ the rest of the world. That Russia has embarked on an aggressive policy is already plain, but it. has s i mined how far she intends to proceed m that policy Soviet dictatorship he content with the establishment. oI y.’ 0' over buffer States and outposts around its European fiontiei, or is its advance in the Baltic only the opening phase ot a much more extended campaign of aggression?

Only when these questions have been answered will it be possible to determine with any confidence the magnitudei o the war and that of the task by which the Allies are confronted in their endeavour to substitute a reign of law loi ‘ • violent aggression in international affairs. Hie P OSJtl °", a , moment holds open possibilities, but it seems likely that the larger uncertainties it holds will be resolved very shoi J.

The Scandinavian countries and Finland are reported, foi example, to have suggested to the United States .joint to Russia against immoderate dealings with Finland. 1 • may thus be opened in a measure to an immediate test, ot Russia’s intentions. It appears to be implied * is willing to make some concessions to the Soviet No doub her principal concern is the maintenance ot her political independence. For what they are worth the reported terms of the Soviet treaties with the Baltic States suggest that agreement may be possible between Russia and Fin ] a ™ ] . 11 these lines. As they run, the treaties indicate that the Soviet is intent on the military and naval domination of the Baltic reoion rather than on an extension of political hegemony to the minor States concerned. The distinction involved is o some importance, even, if it be doubted, whethei States mace militarily subservient are likely to retain any full measure of political independence.

"Whatever may be the prospects of the Baltic States, Soviet action in the Baltic has a highly important bearing also on Russo-German relations, with reference not only to the local, and immediate issue, but to European and world policy. So far as developments in the Baltic and some other areas aie concerned, it is manifest that Germany finds herself in a position, not of equal, but of subordinate partnership with Russia. The German Fuehrer and his Foreign Minister (Herr von Ribbentrop) have done their best to cover up unpalatable and disconcerting facts, but nothing is clearer than that Nazi Germany has been outmanoeuvred very completely by Soviet Russia.

It is not for a moment to be supposed, for example, that the Nazis would willingly have conceded what they have been constrained to concede in the division of Poland. Neithei js it to be believed that Germany would have permitted a single step in the Soviet advance in the Baltic had she been able to prevent it., All that Russia has accomplished in the establishment of bases in the Baltic States, and all that she is now seeking in her negotiations with Finland, may be suinniccMip as tlu "erect ion of a strong barrier against Germany. The Nazis are relinquishing and retiring from what have long been regarded as German spheres of influence. The net. result of the Nazi-Soviet partnership to dale is that Herr Hitler has been compelled to swallow a goodly part of “Mein Kampf and to accept a bad second place to the competing dictatorship which ho declared in that book to be the scum of humanity.

The great, question now raised is how far the Soviet, intends to go in a partnership it lias found thus far very profitable, ft lias been indicated in utterances by some ol the Russian newspapers, which like, their contemporaries in Germany are permitted to say only what they are told to say, that the Soviet is giving moral support to the Nazi peace offensive, but it lias yet to appear that this implies a readiness to enter into a military alliance with Germany, or to give that country economic help otherwise than on commercial terms. With the assurance, however, of an uncompromising rejection by the Allies of peace on such terms as Hiller has proposed, Russia no doubt will he bound to put her cards on the table in the very near future. Meantime she is pursuing a devious and obscure policy. While her tactics in the Middle East and elsewhere are visibly, if tentatively unfriendly to the Allies, she has at the same time entered info a trade, agreement with Britain which possibly may be extended.

At the stage to which it has meantime been carried, the situation holds admittedly dangerous possibilities. In the factors particularly of air force and material supplies, Russia is capable of adding enormously to the resources at Germany’s disposal. In the extent to which it has actually developed, however, the policy of the Soviet, has been less to help Germany than to wake use of her for definitely Russian ends.