EFFECTS OF PACT

Wairarapa Times-Age, 2 October 1939, Page 5

EFFECTS OF PACT

RUSSO=GERMAN TRADE SUBJECT TO INEVITABLE LIMITATIONS. FACTORS OF PRODUCTION & TRANSPORT. ’ (British Official Wireless.) RUGBY, September 30. While the Press comment on the Nazi-Soviet co-operation heralded in Moscow and Berlin is cautious in drawing conclusions as to its more distant political effects, there is a consensus of opinion on its practical consequences and value. The “Daily Herald” today warns its readers against setting too high a value on the consequence of Russian help to Germany. The “Daily Telegraph” recognises that Russian intervention. will be of importance in the economy field, but argues that it cannot by any means be as decisive as the Nazi leaders would like Germany to believe. The “Telegraph” recalls with appositiveness the enthusiasm which greeted the declaration by the Soviet Commissar for Foreign Trade, M. Mikoyan, at the annual congress of the Communist Party Igst March than “Russia is not exporting butter, eggs and bacon.” The paper observes that those who imagined Russia to be favourably rich in such commodities as petroleum and iron ore might be surprised to learn that they were also among the goods which the Trade Commissar proposed to reserve for home consumption. The estimate which the Press has formed of the potential helpfulness to Germany’s war-strained economy of what M. Molotov has now promised on paper is generally in accord with the views held among those here who are informed on the economic geography of Soviet Russia and Eastern Europe, and it is unlikely that an official estimate would be found to differ from these judgments in any important respect. ECONOMIC PRESSURE. Their general purport may be summed up in the statement that the new pact does not fundamentally alter Germany’s economic plight. It may allow the Nazis to hold out a little longer than they could without it, but it cannot effect the inexorable power of economic pressure ultimately to sap Germany’s economic strength. Few here doubt that the object of Herr von Ribbentrop’s second pilgrimage to Moscow was to secure some concession from M. Stalin which might serve as a reassurance to German public opinion in face of the surprising rapidity with which British seapower has made itself felt. Hence the ostentatious coupling of the trade agreement with the other agreements negotiated with the Soviet.

The Nazis hope that Germans themselves as well as the outside world will jump to the conclusion that Russia’s legendary resources in raw materials will now be available to replace that which they can no longer import from overseas. But, with the major exception of manganese, the Russian production of raw materials will not be sufficient to make up the German deficencies. In general Russia produces no large quantities of raw materials which she could spare for export to Germany without doing damage to her own economy. MINERAL OIL SUPPLIES. The whole of the increases in the ■Soviet production of such commodities as iron ore, copper and mineral oil oyer recent years have gone to Russia’s own fast-growing requirements. For example, despite the rise in Russian oil production from 21,400,000 metric tons in 1932, to 30,100,000 in 1938, Russia's exports of oil over the same period fell from over 6,000,000 tons to under 1,000,000 tons. The mechanisation of agriculture on the collectivised Soviet farms has made enormous demands upon the country’s petrol resources, quite apart from the transport demands. Germany would require to obtain some 5,000,000 tons from Russia to compensate her for the supplies from which she is cut off by the British Navy. Apart from the fact that Russia's ‘ exports of the very commodities Germany requires most could not be rapidly increased except unless at the expense of her own requirements and of her development plans, transport represents a formidable obstacle in the way of any large-scale supply of raw materials by Russia to Germany. . The Baltic Sea is the only really satisfactory means of transporting goods in large volumes from Russia to Germany, ’ but the Russian Baltic ports are at the ■ opposite corner of Russia from the raw , materials Germany needs. The Russian rolling stock is well known to be already short for the Soviet’s own •needs. / It is in the light of such considerations as these, based upon facts of economic geography easilj r verified, not open to dispute and dispassionately weighed, that informed opinion here has reached the conclusion that the newest move of the Nazi chiefs in Moscow cannot make any real difference to the course of the armed struggle which Herr Hitler has precipated, which was not already discounted in the prudent decision of the British War Cabinet in the early days of the war to plan for a conflict lasting three years or more. “NECESSARY MEASURES” NAZI INTERPRETATION. AMSTERDAM, September 30. The “Nieuwe-Rotterdamsche Courant’s” Berlin correspondent says that Nazi circles, discussing what is behind the Russian-German threat of “necessary measures” if Britain and France decline peace, suggest that Russian bombers, perhaps 2500, may \ be attached to German aerodromes to ensure supremacy in the air. Perhaps Soviet forces may directly attack the British Empire, sending troops to Iran and Iraq, menacing the position of India and preventing the dispatch of troops to aid on the Western Front. REICHSTAG TO MEIcT ADDRESS BY HERR HITLER. The Reichstag is to meet this week, a radio message reports, and will hear a statement by Herr Hitler. The day of meeting has not been announced. On Saturday afternoon Herr Hitler held a conference of the full Cabinet and some of the General Staff. TRUCE PROPOSALS NATIONAL PEACE COUNCIL. LONDON. September 30. The National Peace Council has convened representatives of peace organisations, who issued a statement that the proposals to end the war should not be summarily rejected, but used in order to secure a truce enabling the submission of the issues to a conference. Presiding over the annual conference of the Scottish Labour Party, Mr John Calaghan said that even now it is not too late to propose a reorganisation of international affairs which might induce willingness to resolve the dispute by arbitration. Otherwise there would be a catastrophe of such dimensions that civilisation itself might perish.