Wairarapa Times-Age FRIDAY, JUNE 16, 1939. AN AGGRESSIVE BLOCKADE.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 16 June 1939, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age FRIDAY, JUNE 16, 1939. AN AGGRESSIVE BLOCKADE.

YVIIIDE it amounts to a serious attack on British trading VV and other interests and evidently must be regarded by Britain as an “unfriendly act,” the Japanese blockade 01. the British and French Concessions at, Tientsin, the great trading port of Northern China, does not seem likely to lead to any new blaze of hostilities in the Far East. It may be taken tor granted that Britain will seek every reasonable alternative to the course of going to war in defence of her commercial jnterests in China. Japan also, aggressively as she shows herself inclined at present, may find excellent reasons for refraining from extreme action against Britain that would tend to bling war into prospect.

When account is taken of the bearing and effect on world affairs of Japan’s present policy of aggression, the outlook becomes immensely complicated. There have been some suggestions that the ’truculence which has culminated meantime in the blockade of the concessions at Tientsin may be an expression chiefly of the desire of the more reckless spirits of the Japanese Army to throw their country into the arms of the Axis Powers. A sustained and abusive anti-British campaign in the Tokio Press may mean that the influence of the Army is making itself felt strongly in Japan, as well as in the occupied areas of China.

Another theory is that Japan is trying to deter Britain from entering into a pact with Russia. On this it has been commented justly that Japanese aggression supplies an additional reason of some weight for building up a peace front in Europe as speedily as possible. At the same time, it should count for a great deal with reasonable people in Japan and elsewhere that the international agreements in which Britain is seeking to extend and enlarge the peace front will have no effect unless aggression is attempted by other nations. How far Japan intends to develop the policy which has found expression at the moment in the blockade of the concessions at Tientsin must remain to some extent a matter of conjecture. Trading on her acknowledged military and naval strength in the Far East, which alone enables her to carry on her undeclared war against China, Japan has long been engaged in methodical efforts to undermine foreign commercial interests in occupied China.

To the fact that in the existing condition of world affairs it would be very difficult for Britain, or even for Britain and other nations, including the United States, acting in concert, to offer direct and warlike opposition to the Japanese attack on foreign interests, it has to be added that Japan has every reason to fear opposition and penalties of another kind—possibly the application of economic sanctions on a scale the world has not yet seen.

It greatly affects the outlook that it would be very difficult for Japan to develop an extreme policy of aggression against British and other foreign interests in China without involving the United States. Japan at present is attempting to exercise discrimination and to concentrate her veiled attack meantime on Britain. It was mentioned in one of yesterday’s cablegrams that at the blockade barriers in Tientsin, Britons were closely inspected, whereas French and American nationals were passed after a perfunctory identification. It will be very difficult, however, to maintain distinctions of this kind. Another message yesterday which reported that the American State Department was continuing to observe a hands-off policy “in the difference between Britain and Japan” mentioned also that the American Government was concerned at the possibility of America becoming involved in the Tientsin incident, since 400 American civilians and 233 marines are located there. It will be remembered that in the Amoy incident of a week or two ago, American and French as well as British marines were landed on Kulangsu Island.

Observers in the United States, have noted of late that while a large and increasing body of opinion in that country favours the use of economic sanctions against aggression, an even greater number of people would favour that policy but for a belief that it would lead inevitably to war. It is possible that if Japan went far enough in 'provocation, the United States might perceive in her case an opportunity of employing sanctions without much danger of being involved in war on any considerable scale. If Britain and the United States combined in such economic action against Japan, as Britain is reported already to be considering, they could, by refusing her exports and withholding from her essential supplies of oil, metals and other materials, subject her to losses and difficulties against which those resulting from her undeclared war on China would appear comparatively insignificant.

Apart from these larger possibilities, every development of Japanese aggression aagainst foreign rights in China gives the countries concerned an incentive to lend additional assistance to China in her struggle against invasion. According to a statement attributed to the Japanese War Office, another jwo or three years will be needed to suppress “the anti-Japanese armies in China.” It is by no means certain that Japan has' any prospect of gaining an effective command over China in two or three years, or in a much greater period of warfare. There are grounds for believing that the Anal victory will be won by China, which is pursuing resolutely a strategy of prolonged and enduring warfare, under which her national organisation appears to be hardening. In any event, the amount of Avar and other material China is able to import from abroad over the Burma road and by other routes is a highly important factor.

OUR ECONOMIC LIBERTIES.

ftOME of I lie comments now being made in Britain on the economic policy and needs of New Zealand bear witness to an attitude which the people of this country, apart from any detail, political or economic issue of the moment, have every right to resent. For instance, in a cablegram from London yesterday, the city editor of the “Manchester Guardian” was quoted as pointing out that anxiety on the part of city business men and exporters is not making Mr Nash’s loan quest any easier, due to the fact that people who can provide money want to be sure that it will not be used to increase imports of industrial plant to enable New Zealand to compete further with imported manufactures. As it stands, this means that the city business men and exporters mentioned consider that they have a right to dictate lo New Zealand as to the industries it shall or shall not establish. The merits of that position may best be appreciated by {Considering what would happen if New Zealand took exception, for example, to Britain’s present encouragement, by means of subsidies and in other ways, of her agricultural industry, on the ground that under that policy New Zealand’s trade interests were being injured. It is not in doubt that if she ventured to make representations of the kind, New Zealand would be told promptly to mind her own business.. The injunction appears to be capable of a two-way application. The city business men and exporters mentioned in the cablegram of course express only their own sectional view and not that of Great Britain. This sectional view was definitely repudiated by the British Prime Minister (Mr Chamberlain) in a public statement made some time ago in which he acknowledged and agreed that the Dominions were entirely free to build up their own secondary industries and must be expected lo do so. At present, however, sectional and selfish views like those expressed in the cablegram are obtaining wide publicity in Britain, in a manner calculated to influence financial and trading markets, while the reasonable view expressed by .Mr Chamberlain, and no doubt accepted by the British Government, is largely ignored, so far at least as the markets in question are concerned.