Wairarapa Times-Age WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 1939. A PACIFIC CHALLENGE?

Wairarapa Times-Age, 15 February 1939, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 1939. A PACIFIC CHALLENGE?

QENERATj Chiang Kai-shek is said to have declared that the. occupation of Hainan Island will have little effect on the present war in the Far East, and is of no consequence to China, but, that the development is dangerous from the standpoint of Britain and the United States, and that if the Japanese are permitted to hold the island and to establish a naval and air base there, “it will be a turning point in the international situation in the Pacific.”

In these statements of the Chinese Generalissimo there is perhaps an element, though only an element, 01. propaganda. Hainan undoubtedly is capable of being developed as a naval and air base of formidable strength, from which attacks might, be launched on British and American trade routes and island possessions. If Britain and the United States refrain from taking action against the Japanese occupation of Hainan, they will be turning a blind eye on at least, an additional potential threat to their interests in the Far East, and in some vital areas of the Pacific. France also is,concerned, because Hainan Island is commandingly placed off the coast of French Indo-China.

Ou flu* other hand, Chiang Kai-shek’s assertion that lhe Japanese occupation of Hainan is ol’ no consequence to China, can hardlv he reconciled with obvious facts. One of the three

routes by which China is still in touch with the outside, world i is that, of the narrow gauge railway which runs from the port of Haipong, in French Indo-China to Kunming, the capital ol the Chinese south-western province of Yunnan, while a shorter branch of the line enters the province ol’ Kwangsi. From. Hainan as a base, the Japanese no doubt will be able to attack this railway by air and they may be within striking distance also of the motor road which enters Yunnan from Burma. Now that China is depending so largely on the defence and development of her south-western provinces, she can hardly regard with indifference lhe establishment of a Japanese ail' base on. Hainan Island.

Britain, the United States and France evidently are in no haste io show their hand where lhe occupation of Hainan Island and the course of events generally in the Far East are concerned. Britain and France “are in touch’’ on the matter of the latest extension of Japanese aggression, according to an answer to a question in the House of Commons. The United States, at lime of writing, has yet to be heal'd from on the subject.

It is not obviously clear that the international issues raised by the occupation of Hainan Island are as supremely imporlant as Chiang Kai-shek has contended. Even diplomatic or warlike action by the Occidental Powers concerned—action compelling Japan to evacuate the island—would leave untouched the much larger question of whether Japan is or is not capable of subjugating China. From Britain's standpoint, the capture of Canton by the Japanese, and Hie blow thereby struck at the trade and security of Hong Kong, were at. least as important and as damaging as the oevupat ion of Hainan fshind.

Short of some new development al present unforeseen, such as a strong and purposeful lead by the United Stales, it seems likely that Britain and France may (deci to continue lo play a waiting game in the Far East, keeping in mind the possibility of an ultimate clearing up of the total situation. An attempt to eject the Japanese by force from Hainan Island might give the signal for general war. and even if it were successful as a detail operation would by no mean's dispose of the dangers of Japanese aggression in the Pacific.

On the other hand, there are some grounds for believing that in their efforts to conquer China, the Japanese are faced by a task- beyond their strength. In spite of their many defeats in battle and their tremendous losses of territory, lives ami wealth. Hie Chinese are still resisting strongly as a united nation. Their guerilla operations within the Japanese lines of ostensible conquest are formidable and in the four southwestern provinces they are consolidating and to some extent building up their strength, industrially and in other ways. It is said that in the first year of their invasion of China, the Japanese employed a million and a half men and lost a fairly substantial proportion of that number. It is claimed that, apart from the extension of their far from complete conquest, they must keep a million men under arms in China to retain what they meantime hold. Months ago. tin 1 cost of the war was said to be absorbing forty per (-(“id of Japan’s national income and, taking everything into account, the burden entailed no doubt is becoming steadily heavier as time goes on.

There is little enough to inspire confidence in the statement of tin* Japanese Foreign Minister ( Air Arita) that Japan “had no territorial ambitions in Hainan and would occupy the island only so long as was militarily necessary." The situation may be dealt with in other ways, however, than by directly cliallenging Hie Japanese aggression. Britain ami the United Stales are already assisting ('llina lo some extent with credits and supplies. An extension of that policy may appear lo be well warranted. In any case, the possibility that Japan may exhaust, herself in her efforts to conquer and subjugate China is not yet to be dismissed us chimerical.