Wairarapa Times-Age TUESDAY, JANUARY 24, 1939. AN IMPENDING CRISIS

Wairarapa Times-Age, 24 January 1939, Page 4

Wairarapa Times-Age TUESDAY, JANUARY 24, 1939. AN IMPENDING CRISIS

JN one of yesterday’s cablegrams from London, the Rome correspondent of the British United Press was quoted as predicting a crisis in March or April over Italian demands on France. Well-informed circles in Rome, the correspondent stated, are of opinion that, immediately after the subjugation of Catalonia, Signor Mussolini, backed by Herr Hitler, will demand satisfaction from France, which, under British adyice, will capitulate in preference to fighting. Signor Mussolini’s spearheads will be the Pyrenees, Libya, the Franco-Italian frontier, Jibuti and Sardinia ... The semi-official Rome newspaper “Relazioni InternnaZionali” declares that France’s failure to fulfil Italy’s demands will plunge Europe into a terrible war. It hardly needs to be pointed out that if Britain advised and induced France to capitulate to Italy, this would be only a, first step towards capitulation by the British Empire to the totalitarian States, on the colonies issue and on any other issue that these States liked to raise. Whatever the alternative may be, it must therefore be hoped that the Rome reports just quoted are entirely false and without foundation in the extent to which they purport to foreshadow the attitude and policy of the British Government. There are in fact substantial reasons'for believing that a halt has been called by both Britain and France in the policy of yielding to the demands of the dictatorships. France, through her leading Ministers, has declared that she will fight rather than cede an inch of ■ territory to Italy, and Mr Chamberlain, on behalf of his Government, has affirmed the complete identity of French and British aims. The Rome reports under notice divide into two parts. One of these relates to Italy’s predicted action, and the other to the anticipated attitude of Britain and France. While it certainly may be hoped that Britain and France will play no such helpless part as is assigned to them, it is probable that in their forecast of an attempted act of blackmail by Italy, the reports are accurate enough, and that in consequence the democracies are about to be confronted by a crisis very much more serious than that which centred a. few months ago on Czechoslovakia.

Reasons for expecting this crisis to arise are now in plain sight. Mr. Chamberlain has reiterated very recently the faith he has affirmed on various occasions in assurances by Italy to the effect that she has “no territorial, political, or economic aims in Spain or in the Balearic Islands.” “Well-informed circles in Rome,” however, believe that in the subjugation of Catalonia —an event now to all appearances in very near prospect — Signor Mussolini will find his opportunity for blackmailing France, with German support. Nothing more need be said at the moment about this aspect of the position than that Mr Chamberlain’s professed expectation of an Italian withdrawal from Spain never has had any visible foundation.

An Italian blackmailing attempt against France would not be particularly formidable if it were denied iGerman support. A number of reasons appear, however, for supposing that German support will not be denied. With the assistance and backing of Italy, Nazi Germany has found the policy of aggression, and of extortion by menaces, highly profitable, so far at least as the expansion of her military power is concerned. Italy’s acquiescence in the policy which has given Germany virtual possession of Czechoslovakia and open opportunities of expansion into Central and South-Eastern Europe no doubt is regarded as having earned a quid pro quo. Moreover both dictatorships are involved in economic difficulties, arising chiefly out of their concentration on war preparation—difficulties in which a continued course of aggression and plunder suggests itself as a possible way of escape.

It is at least highly probable that. Ihe coming northern spring will find the totalitarian partners combining Io use Spain as a base for threatened or actual attack' on the democracies. A healthy spirit of national independence undoubtedly exists in Spain and there are possibilities of a rising against foreign domination. In the absence of that assistance from the democracies which the Republican Government, of Spain has been denied, however, the Spanish people evidently would have little enough hope of overcoming Nazi and Fascist military organisation.

The policy of concession to the dictatorships has produced a state of affairs vastly more critical than, that -which existed before Germany had been allowed to lay violent hands on Austria and Czechoslovakia, and Italy, with German aid, to carry on unhampered the campaign which has now brought the conquest of Spain into imminent prospect. A greater crisis than ever is developing in Europe and one in which the democracies, if they wished any longer to pursue the policy of appeasement by concession, could only do so by becoming themselves the victims of concession. It has been sufficiently demonstrated that concessions merely whet the piratical rapacity of the totalitarian States and make them more eager than ever in aggression. The democracies plainly are called upon to choose between resolute resistance to totalitarian demands and an ignominious and disastrous surrender to Hie effects of which no limits can bo set.