Wairarapa Times-Age THURSDAY, JANUARY 12, 1939. WAR DANGERS IN EUROPE.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 12 January 1939, Page 6

Wairarapa Times-Age THURSDAY, JANUARY 12, 1939. WAR DANGERS IN EUROPE.

'piT’E Washington correspondent of the “New York Tinies” was quoted in one of yesterday’s cablegrams as stating that he understands that the American Ambassadors to France and Great Britain “have indicated the likelihood of a major war in Europe before the middle of the year, probably caused by Mussolini’s ambition to rival Hitler.” 'This, as it stands, is not particularly convincing. In the reference to Mussolini there is rather a suggestion of the tail wagging the dog, though the possibility perhaps is not lo be overlooked that Hitler and Mussolini may be prepared as a partnership to go lo war rather than abate their aggression in Spain, or sacrifice the strategic advantages they hope to gain from that aggression.

Quite, possibly the American report just quoted may belong to the category of scare stories of an imaginative kind. Unfortunately, however, there cannot be any doubt that the danger of war in Europe is real and imminent, and is to be reckoned with more or less irrespective of what new developments in tactics either Hiller or .Mussolini may have in mind. The danger probably is at its worst on account of the dictators being themselves largely creatures of circumstance, able to exercise very little control over the forces of discord and evil they have done so much to generate.

It has been said Indy that the greatest menace to world peace in the near future is in the development of acide conditions of financial and economic crisis in Germany and in Italy. While something has been heard of the deprivations suffered by the people of these countries, the facts have been covered up to some extent by a parade of regimented control over economic affairs. In particular it has been boasted that there is no unemployment, and no unrelieved destitution, in the totalitarian States.

There is another side to the picture, however. No doubt it. is easy to abolish unemployment in countries in which all available men, and large numbers of women as well, are compelled to work hard and long for a poor return, in order that military power may be expanded to the utmost. An aspect of the position too easily overlooked is that the conditions of regimented economy which obtain in Germany and Italy entail a huge continuing waste and also a terrible and an increasing strain on the regimented population.

In spile of the secrecy observed and enforced in the totalitarian Slates, evidence is available that their financial, and economic problems are threatening to get completely out of hand. In the course of a recent article in the “Sydney Morning Herald,” Professor S. H. Roberts observed on this subject

Since the September crisis, the Nazi problem has been to prevent the credit-inflation degenerating into an uncontrollable currency-inflation. On September 30, the notes in circulation exceeded eight milliard marks for the first time since the collapse of 1923. A year before the figure had been only 5} milliards and it was ridiculous to say that the increase of 60 per cent, was due to the expansion of industry. The trade position also The favourable balance of trade of 443 million marks in 1937 was changed into an unfavourable balance of 210 million marks in the first ten months of 1938. Austria and Sudetenland have meant far more expenditure, and it is difficult to.see how Germany can avoid a financial breakdown, or, at the very least, some form of depreciation or repudiation in the next few months. Italy is in much the same position, though she has been keeping her expenditure within bounds that are not quite astronomical.

In his recent visits to London, Dr. Schacht is said to have argued, the same writer states, that, “if financial aid is not given to Germany, the extremists under Goebbels, Hess and Himmler, who have been lighting the moderates .under the recently mellowed Goering, will gain control and seek relief from their interna] difficulties in some form of foreign adventure.”

The democracies, it may be supposed, are not in a mood to be blackmailed in' this way, bul if they were they certainly would do nothing to ward off the danger of war by paying tribute to the Moloch of totalitarian militarism. The only remedy for Ihe disease to which Germany and Italy are a prey is to reverse the policy of exploiting and wrecking normal economic organisation in the interests of militarism. It is because the dictatorships may be’ not only unwilling, but unable, to apply that remedy that the peril of general war in Europe is very real today.

There is a body of suppressed opinion in Germany which looks to war as the means of breaking the Nazi tyranny and freeing Germany from the disgrace of the Nazis. Commenting on these “thoughts and wishes,” a leaflet issued by the German Freedom Barty said they might be intelligible, might be human, might be manly—“but they are not German, they are not worthy of us.”

Not only (the leaflet added) because war might annihilate our Germany and perhaps all Europe, but still more 'because we Germans must not look to foreign aid for our emancipation from our bondage. We have the responsibility of having submitted to the tyranny of Nazism. We must muster the courage and the strength to break our chains and make Germany free once more.

Though it is comforting to know that the true character of Nazism is at least as plainly apparent to a proportion of the people of Germany as it is lo outside observers, the prospects of an internal revolt in the Reich are not visibly bright. The possibility remains that the dictators may seek a way of escape .from their difficulties in “foreign adventure,” even if in doing so thev make their own earl v overthrow reasonably certain.