Wairarapa Times-Age WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 21, 1938. THE CONFLICT IN ASIA.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 21 December 1938, Page 6

Wairarapa Times-Age WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 21, 1938. THE CONFLICT IN ASIA.

A 0001) deal of significance probably attaches to tlie decision of the United States Reconstruction Finance Corporation to grant a loan to China, and also to the statement of the J>ritish Prime .Minister (Mr Neville Chamberlain) that: “In principle, Britain would be very glad if it is found possible to facilitate certain British exports’to ’China in the'same way,” and that this question will be considered sympathetically when the Exports Guarantee Bill has been passed. The action decided upon by the United States, and Britain’s readiness to follow suit, offer convincing evidence that -Japan’s claims that she is on the point of winning a complete and decisive victory in China are discounted heavily in AVashington and in London.

While an open bread) between the English-speaking countries and -Japan has been avoided, tension has been growing. Apart from the sympathy felt for China, the treatment by the Japanese of British, American and'other foreign trading interests in China Ims been resented bitterly. It : is more important at the moment, however, that the United States and Britain would hardly be likely to grant export, credits to China, if they did not believe that she will be able to maintain her organisation in spite of the losses of Jives and territory she has suffered in some fifteen months of conflict with Japan.

Tliong'h sweeping military victories liave Jteen won Jiy the Japanese, it is possiJile that the conflict which opened last year ■with the attack on Shanghai is still only in its coinparalively early stages. At a recent date it was calculated that the Japanese had lost not less than 300,000 men killed and wounded, and the Chinese armies at least five times as many —the proportion of deaths on the Chinese side being increased enormously liy deficiencies of transport and of medical organisation. .Mow many Chinese civilians have perished is largely a matter of conjecture, but the number probably is enormous. China has lost Ihe whole of her ports and developed industrial districts •and is thrown back upon a hinterland which is vast, but is <dthei- undeveloped industrially, or has been developed here and there in hasty and fragmentary fashion. Several routes into China are still iipen, however, amongst them a road from Burma and the railway from French Indo-China into Yunnan.

It appears to be admitted by the Japanese that the occupation of al] China is a task to which their are unequal, but their expressed hope is that as a. result of the conquest of the Chinese coastal zones, plains and railway systems, the Nationalist Government headed by Marshal Chiang Kai-shek will degenerate into a more local administration they can afford to disregard. They anticipate being able to concentrate on putting down guerilla warfare in the occupied regions and to enlist the co-operation of ITiendly (otherwise puppet) Chinese administrations.

On the other hand, it has lately been claimed on behalf of China that even further advances by. the Japanese armies ■would be hollow victories, and that the invading forces will be weakened constantly by guerilla attacks on ever-extending lines of commnnication.

Japan is spending three dollars to our one on the war in China <a statement of the Chinese viewpoint declares). She must also carry the burden of competitive arming on land with the Soviet Union, on sea with America and Great Britain. Any change in the international situation will be to our advantage; America, Great Britain, France, the Soviet Union all have reasons, in their own interests, to help us. On the other hand Germany and Italy will not give Japan any positive aid in the Far East. If we get foreign aid, even of an indirect kind, such as the stoppage of foreign war materials to Japan, the war will be ended mure quickly. But with or without foreign aid we shall win in the long rim. We can outlast Japan morally, economically, financially and in the long range military outlook as well.

As between these opposed viewpoints, the vital underlying factor at stake no doubt is lhe ability of the Chinese people to maintain a degree of national unity which will enable them, not only to continue active resistance in their great hinterland, but to foil and defeat the organising efforts of the Japanese in t lie areas they have occupied. H is not to be taken for granted that China will be able to maintain an elfeclive unity in face of tin* terrible losses she has suffered, hut al least, with Canton as well as Hankow in the hands of (he enemy, lhe suggestion of a Chinese capitulation is slid scouted and (.’hiang Kai-shek lately declared that the Japanese, having fought hitherto in the plains, must tight henceforth in tin l mountains. If the proud claims of the Generalissimo can be made good, no bright or promising prospect will be opened for the invaders. In that case, as Mr W. 11. Chamberlin put it recently in an article in ‘‘Current < Ipinion : — It is not only that Japan’s economic weaknesses, shortage of gold and tightness of credit abroad, a rising cost of living, a steady ebbing away of foreign markets, an ever lengthening list of deprivations for the people, will prove cumulative in effect. ■ Even more important will be the fact that the Japanese military machine, formidable as it is. will simply be lost in China’s endless expanse of territory. All this admittedly is coni ingeiit upon China being able to maintain an effective organisation and unity in spite of being thrown back upon her vast but largely undeveloped hinterland. In itself the actual and proposed treatment in Hie United States and in Britain of lhe question of export credits for China siiggc;-:!:; that in the opinion of the American and British Governments the conflict in the Far East is far from having been carried to a decision.