Wairarapa Times-Age THURSDAY, AUGUST 11, 1938. THE RUSSO-JAPANESE CRISIS.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 11 August 1938, Page 6

Wairarapa Times-Age THURSDAY, AUGUST 11, 1938. THE RUSSO-JAPANESE CRISIS.

A MORE absolute contrast could hardly be imagined than is to be drawn between the ultimate possibilities of the dispute between Soviet Russia and Japan in the area inland from Possiet Bay, where Manchukuo, Korea and the Russian Maritime Provinces meet, and the trivial issues originally at stake. The few square miles of territory in dispute can hardly be regarded as having any great value, strategic or otherwise. In the fighting that has already taken place, however, at least some hundreds of lives have been lost on either side and the possibility is now in plain sight that an insignificant incident which should have been brought easily to a settlement may lead instead to a new blaze of war in the Far East and perhaps in other parts of the world as well. It .is one of the strangest features of a menacing situation that the Soviet is able to allege with some apparent plausibility that the border clash which has developed into “a full-dress war on a four-mile front” was precipitated by a Japanese act of aggression—the occupation of Chang; kufeng Hill! Taking account of Japan’s existing commitments in China, even her most ardent militarists might have been expected to shrink at present from making any further call upon her resources. The Japanese Ambassador in Paris was quoted in one of yesterday’s cablegrams as stating that Japan was using only six divisions of reservists on the various Chinese fronts and that, although the Russians were better trained and equipped than the Chinese, ‘‘Japan could collaborate with Manchukuo and defend her rights for .at least two years without her economic life being disturbed.” Probably the reference to “six divisions” is an error in transmission. At all events, it is credibly reported that Japan at a recent date was using 28 divisions in furtherance of her efforts to occupy China. It seems likely, too, that heavily increasing demands will be made upon her resources in that country for a long time to come. At present her-occupation of great areas of China extends little beyond the cities,.and main lines of railway. Even if Hankow and Canton share the fate of Shanghai-and Nanking, a tremendous task will remain to be dealt, with in effectively controlling and occupying the ostensibly conquered territory. If there is any real readiness on the part of the Japanese militarists, with their country thus burdened, to engage in war with Russia, it must be supposed that they are acting upon a belief that Russia in these circumstances would soon find herself in conflict with other enemies as well. A great deal, of course, depends on Germany’s interpretation of the anti-Comintern . Pact, which she concluded with Japan in November, 1936, and as to this reports are very much in conflict. On the one hand, Germany is alleged to have given Japan assurances of moral and other forms of support, and on the'other it is said to be insisted officially in Berlin that Germany is not interested, because the anti-Comintern pact is only a cultural agreement. The danger certainly cannot be over-* looked that Germany might find in the outbreak of war between Russia and Japan encouragement to enter upon an extended policy of aggression in Middle Europe. For the sake of world peace, it must be hoped that the Possiet, Bay incident will subside as so many incidents of a similar kind have in the past. It certainly may be expected to subside if Japan pays adequate regard to the fact that Russia has in Siberia a well-found army-reported to be approximately equal in strength to Japan’s available divisions. For years both Powers have maintained powerful armies along the Amur River, which was described, as long ago as 1934, as “a thread separating two highly-equipped forces.” Whether an ultimate conflict on the greatest scale between Russia and Japan can be averted is at best an open question. Should that conflict break out now, the repercussions in Europe might easily be disastrous.