Wairarapa Times-Age WEDNESDAY, APRIL 13, 1938. RUSSIA AND THE FAR EAST.

Wairarapa Times-Age, 13 April 1938, Page 6

Wairarapa Times-Age WEDNESDAY, APRIL 13, 1938. RUSSIA AND THE FAR EAST.

GOME of the most intriguing questions that are raised by the Japanese invasion of China, 'but have yet to e answered, concern the intentions and ultimate attitude ot Russia. The probable future would be indicated in a number of vital particulars if it were known positively whether there are any circumstances m which the boviet Government would intervene actively and in full str eng 11 on behalf of China -and if so what the circumstances are in which Russia would act. These questions in fact cannot be answered with any assurance meantime, except perhaps by M. Stalin and some of his associates, but there are visible factors and probabilities which are worth considering __ and may be supposed to throw, some light on possibilities of the future.

Although there is no treaty of alliance between China and Russia, the two countries are parties to a noil-aggression pact signed a week after Sino-Japanese hostilities at Shanghai had begun last year. In the first ai’ticle ot this .instrument, the two Powers solemnly reaffirm their condemnation of recourse to war for the solution 01. international controversies and. mutually undertake to refrain from any aggression against each other individually or jointly with one or more other Powers.” This is followed by a declaration that

in the event that either of the High Contracting Parties should be .subjected to aggression on the part of one or more third Powers, the other High Contracting Party obligates itself not to render assistance of any kind, either directly or indirectly, to iSuch third Power or Powers at. any time during the entire conflict and also to refrain from taking any action or entering' into any agreement which may be used by the aggressor or aggressors to the disadvantage of the party subjected to aggression.

So far as the present Far Eastern conflict is concerned, the non-aggression pact commits the Soviet only to withholding any assistance from Japa nin her attack on China. It is part of the background to this state of affairs, also, that diplomatic relations betvzeen Russia and China in the. period immediately preceding the Japanese aggression were far from being established on a basis of satisfactory understanding. On the contrary, the two countries had been (Seriously at odds over the question of the Chinese Eastern Railway and over the action of the Soviet in signing a pact, of mutual assistance with Outer Mongolia without regard to China’s claim to suzerain authority over that territory.

Writing in. “Current History,” Mr Randall Gould says that- a little over a year ago, Moscow would gladly have signed a Sino-Russiari treaty “;witli teeth in it,” but that “the Russian view is that China obdurately persisted in forcing Russia to pay the full cqsTs of her insurance against war with Japan, these costs including the maintenance of a huge military establishment in the Far East and the achievement of a most difficult and. hazardous diplomatic balance.’' Naturally (Mr Gould adds) the Russians will keep their usual elos.e and canny eye on the position. It seems entirely probable that if China seemed due to break immediately, leaving Japan in full charge, of the field at no Special cost to herself, the Russians might somehow get into the situation actively. But so long as the Sino-Japane.se affray proceeds on any sort of, basis representing a continuing occupation and expense to Japan, at no cost to Russia, the Russians have every reason, to sit back and let China wear Japan down for their mutual benefit. This diagnosis of the situation in. the Far East is at least plausible. There is ranch to support Ihe opinion that although Russia may feel, little sympathy with China, she probably would feel it. unwise, and unsafe to remain passive while Japan aggrandised and strengthened herself to any considerable extent at China’s expense.