HOW WARS BREAK OUT.

Waikato Argus, Volume X, Issue 865, 26 January 1901, Page 1 (Supplement)

HOW WARS BREAK OUT.

A REVIEW AND A FORECAST. (From the Evening Standard ) That famous aphorism "It is only the unexpected that happens " might be amended, in the case of war—" The expected happens unexpectedly." Modern wars are always preceded by many unmistakable figus. Yet everyone is surprised by the suddenuess with which they finally break out. Of course it is the part of the clever statesman to conceal his designs as long as possible, to take advantage of the confidence of the other party, and to strike as swiftly and ►uddenly as he can. Ihe war of Prussia against Austria is 18(56 is a remarkable example of this kind of strategy. Bismarck had not only determined to fisiht Austria, but he had entered iu'o an offensive aliinnce with Italy for that pnrposfi. But, up to the very day of open hostilities, he was engaged in writing friend y despatches to the Austrian Emperor, assuring him that neither Prussia nor Italy had the remotest intention of going to war, aud begging him to reduce his army to a peace footing. At the same time every preparation was being made mi Prussia for hostilities, and when the fit moment arrived, the Prussian Government in iidnant y askea Saxony (a member of the Bund) the very same question t hat President Kruger lately put to Sir Alfred Milner, What did she m c an by massing her troops on the frontier? The query was immediately followed by an invasion of that little little kingdom. Just before Prussiai) troops had crossed from Suhleswig, which was uud<-r Prussian protection, into Holstein, over which Austria was suzerain. And thus the war of 18GS, remarkable tor the greatest battle of the century, was begun.

Very sudden and unexpected was the outbreak of the Franco Prussian War. As everyone knows, Prussia had offended Erance by offering to supply Spain with a King. And France had insulted Prussia by demanding a guarantee* that the off. r would never be repeated. This was just the occasion Prussia wanted. Things became a bit complicated by the departure of the Pruss an Ambassador from Pars. He really went to Berlin for the purpose of explaining matters. But France thought he was withdrawn as a preliminary to hostilities. In a few days the two eouu ries had passed from a condition of perfect peace to open war. So sudden was the transition that, although war was formslly declared on July 19th, only a week previously (July 11th), Lord Granville, speaking in the House of Lords, said:—"l had the honour of receiving the seals of the Foreign Office las} Wednesday. On the previous ('ay I had a conversation with the experienced Under-Secretary, and he told me he had nes r er, during his long experience, known so great a lull in fo eign affairs. At six o'clock that evening 1 received a telegram informing me of the choice by Spain of Prince Leopold." Ot cour-e this choice was the omen of war. But, neverthless. the surprise was considerable and universal when the news of the French Emperor's foolish declaration came to hand. ,

The gradual drifting of the United States into hostilitiei with Spain was a matter of observation. Self-interest, humanitarian sentiment, the Monroe doc riue, and o'lier tilings, were leading up to it for gem rations. Everyone knew it won d surely tome. And yet it came suddenly to the end. Spain was certainly astonished, aud ail the world was a bit surprised. Our own war with the United S ates in IS!'2 broke forth unexpectedly. For many years we had insisted on our right to search American warships for de.ser c:s from the Pritish Navy. The United S'ates Government denied our r glit Stil! we forcibly removed some Britisher- from the American frigate She«apeaka, while she was cruising off the Virginia coast in 1807. And in 1811, we boarded the American warship Spi' fire and forcibly took therefrom an American citizen, believing him to be a an English deserter This was more than 6 he hottempered Americans could bear, and they actually committed an set ot' reprisal which was tantamount to war. But thi' gs were patched up. However, the Americans nursed their indignaion, and in .April of the following year they laid an embargo for ninety thiys on all British vessels in United States waters. This was done in order that England should not get wind of the fact that the United States were determined to make war upon us, to iavade and annex Canada, aud to sei<« a rich fleet of over one hundred British merchantmen on their way from the West Indies. On June 18th the Washington Congress passed an act declaring war against Great Britain, immediately after American troops and warships commenced I o-tilities. However, we heard of rhe s-ate of affairs on July 25th through the schooner Mackerel, despatched from Halifax, and, of course, we diil not decline the contest.

The Crimean War commenced in a marvellous manner. Firs', there was a dispute between the Latin Christians and the Creek Christians as to their rights to worship at the Holy Places in and ue r Jerusalem. Russia stood by the Greeks, and Fiance spoke up for the La;ins. Turkey took sides with France, aud so Russia sent her troops into the Turkish Dauubian Provinces to obtain what she call d '' a material guarantee " that her wishes would be carried out. Then England joined with France, and while rot a word was said about war, the British and French fleets were sent, step by step, right into the Black Sea, with orders to drive all Russian ships into port. Meanwhile, Turkey declared war against Russia, and hastened to force her troops out of Turkish territory. But the Russian Ambassadors still remained in Loudon and Paris, whi'e the French and K ijjlish Ambassadors continued at M;. Petersburg. The Russians had crossedthe Prnth on the last day of May, 1553 : the Engli-h and French fleets had entered the Dardanelles on October22oil; Turkey had declared war on October 28rd : on January lth. ISo-1, the English and French ships had enti red the Black Sea with ho-tile intentions: and still there was no formal declaration of war with Russia, by Englmd, till March 22nd, 1834. So that the creeping on of it was very slow, but none the less sure. Nowadays, such a series of events as these of the Crimean War would be an impossibility. Nations are not only able to s'like more quickly, but they arc readier to take offence. At the same time they are more cvreful about giving offence, and even an ultimatum is couched in the politest terms'. But this very fact makes for the sudden and unexpected outbreak of war. Diplomatists smile and talk each other fair up to the moment of the final spring at each other's throats. Hence wars o; the future will come, as some poetic statesman says, like bolts from the blue. Indeed most of the wars \vh ch history records have broken out without any formal declaration. A careful investigation has been made by Colonel Maurice of no less than one hundred and seventeen outbreaks of hostilities between nations, which occurred duriug the period 1800-1870, and in only teu of these instances was the war preceded by a formal declaration.