Fifty year warm-up

Waimarino Bulletin, Volume 5, Issue 5, 30 June 1987, Page 1

Fifty year warm-up

Long term prospects for winter sports in many areas of the southern hemisphere are not promising, according to Dr. Jim Salinger of the Meteorological Office in Wellington.

In an interview he gave on the National Radio programme last week Dr Salinger explained that the problem would be the gradual break-down of the ozone layer through the spread of aerosol spray s and the use of jet aircraft fuels at high altitudes.

The ozone layer is a region of ozone concentration in the stratosphere that absorbs high-energy solar ultra-violet rays. Ozone is a colourless gas with molecules made up of three oxygen atoms. The 'greenhouse' effect created by a change in ozone levels was likely to cause the gradual collapse of the Antarctic icecap. If this meant an expected rise of 1°-2°C over the next 50 years it would result in a 3-6 metre rise in sea levels around the Pacific oceari areas as the Antarctic ice-cap melted. Planning by government agencies, public authorities and private individuals - particularly those in coastal areas - would have to take note of these changes in their future calculations. It is expected that Northland will become increasingly tropical in what it can grow and there will be a general shift south of crops now confined to more northerly areas of New Zealand.

As far as winter sports are concemed it is expected that the snow level will rise about 1,000ft (300m) over the next 50 years. This will create a problem for those ski areas already utilising the tops of mountains but here in the Waimarino the prospects of either flood or snow famine seem unlikely. At an average altitude of between 2,000 and 3,000 ft (600-900m) we are not likely to be affected by a 3-6 metre rise in the Waimarino in sea levels. Nor are our skifields likely to be totally without snow. Both Whakapapa and Turoa Skifields presently operate from a base (car parks and chairlift drive stations) from about 5,000 ft (1500m) up to 7,000 ft (2285m). With Mt Ruapehu towering another 2,000ft (600m) above the higheii existing ski-lift facilitv there's still a lot of high altitude terrain to develop if the snow level was to rise as predicted in the next 50 years.