NO WAR THIS YEAR.

Wairarapa Age, Volume XXV, Issue 10713, 3 May 1913, Page 7

NO WAR THIS YEAR.

THE SPECTATOR'S FORECAST. "There can be no doubt that there is at the present momenrt (a good deal of uneasiness among the thinking men in England in regard to the European situation," declares tlie Spectator in a remft.rk.able article which appeared on March 8. "The re-awakening of Frajiee and the evidence of her power and alertness have given immense, nay, universal, satisfaction in this country, but that satisfaction i« tempered in many cases by #,an anxiou s thought. The French, it is argued, are at this moment very sure of themselves, very full of patriotism and martial ardour, and very certain that their army is in magnificent condition, not only as regards its man, but also as regards 'material,' and especially as regards that greatest of all the mechanic powers of war, artillery. At the same jftime France, with all her natural quickness', recognises that for the moment Germany is at a disadvantage. "Austria-Hungary ha« her legs caught in the wire entanglements of the Balkans, and, if the great war oa,me now, would require help from Germany rather than be ahle to give her aid." But if the fight comes with Austria-Hungary thus entano'led, can anyone believe that Italy will run the appalling risks involved by adhesion to the Triple Alliance? _ Germanv, indeed, may be said to have publicly admitted her condition of disadvantage; for is not she at this moment asking her taxpayers to make an un-heard-of sacrifice in order that she may remedy that condition, and out of iher own population create a new army which will make Tip for the aid that Austria-Hungary would have given her before the. teeth of the dead Turkish dragon had ,<rrown its crop of armed men in the Balkans? "To sum up, thel'e is a feeling here that France may find the temptation of 'Now or Never* too great for her, and may feel tthat her national interests demand that the European shall be fought out this year."

To resist tlii-s foelinyr the Spectator ■points out that there is a large body of wise, prudent- and influential men in France who understand that any attempt to carry oait the "now or never" policy would, forfeit the support of Russia and certainly of Britain. And if Britain were not with France, French communications Tunis, Algiers, and Morocco mig'hit be- severed by' the Gennan-Austro-Tta.lian fleet- and the French flank turned by a German invasion of French territory. German sea-power is in reality directted as much France as against Britain. For tbese reasons France is not in the least likely to provoke war (this year, as ".she i« noft <toin<r to knock her lio-ad against a brick wall. Nor. concludes the Spectator, is Germany likely to deliberately provoke | a conflict.