THE Wairarapa Age MORNING DAILY. SATURDAY, DECEMBER 3, 1911. THE POLITICAL PROSPECTS.

Wairarapa Age, Volume XXXII, Issue 1049, 9 December 1911, Page 4

THE Wairarapa Age MORNING DAILY. SATURDAY, DECEMBER 3, 1911. THE POLITICAL PROSPECTS.

J)iespitio the opt'i-fnisin, of the P.riine Minister and his frieiidsi, there a|s every rea.s-.iMi. to tliiiik tliat tihe second baliot w<J3 result in itlie refljogation oif tlie Cl-overai-menit to the cold shades of Opposition, amd the placing of Mi' Mmsse.y iiu power with a sukhu* majority. The poJ'Bng on Thursday slblowed the .state of partiles to be ais fallows:— Reform Party 25 Government 21 independent 1

'lHiere are thirty second ballliots to he taken, and tJiree Native seats have to he contested. In the second ballots, the. Reform Painty aire almost sure to Waitemata, Parnell, Ragllan, Hawke'-s Bay, Pahiat.ua, Masterton, Wellington Suburbs, Nelson, Waitaki, Oamaru, jA.sUiiburkm, Paiuedi.n Soufh, and Duuedin CentraO.

They have fifllso strtong Lopes of winning Wellington Oenitral', Wellington SouUi, Koiapori 1 ., ami Duendin West. Assuming that they wiui the whoAi off uiese, they wuiil haVe forty-two representatives in a H'ouse of eighty. (jii uie rrteanaihuing fifteen sears, tlie UkAcrnmenit iiu.ve, owiy an outside Chance of wlimmiuig Kaapara, C(hiiiL>muri, Wuarmariuo-, Wanganaii, Avon, K'ieoartoiir, (Jlhiristchurch ><orth., Giirisitchnrch Jbiast, Clbalmers', Live.' v oargiM l , and, Grey uyim. This w „{j give the Government thirty-on l ' , ■ mu • • . • •** seats, llie reimJamiing seats —Otak - -ur 1V ton Mist, ami &utll _ may go to Labour tfaildi(late& . lf these nhree were aapjtopt Go _ vonianenlt, and *j )0 reUljaiilliug Maori Xvore wn by the try, the Ward Adaiiaaiistrartioaij .wonifJu sk'.l f our VOltes , to t ] ie , i >a j t w'til tihus he seen that tlie state of : panties is most interesting. Possibly, wiheiii itihe final' numbers, go up, fche result wilHi ho'— Reform Party 41 Government 33 Labour and Independent... 6

If t#iite prognostication, prove correct, Mr Musisey will most certainly be called upon, to form a Ministry, am.d should have no diflicu3rty in dioing so. Oin the other hand, should the Government win one or two of the seats< 'Which have Injen placed to the credit of the Opposition, its position. wouDd srtaill be interesting, for it would have to depend for lits existence upon; the [few Labour members iuv the House. It ils exceedingly problematical whether the Labourites Would be dlisposed to support the Government in siudi ckicu instances. Whatever may happen, it is certain tha't the Ward, Administration has iwv longer the country at its' back, and tiliat a change is bound to coane. Realising the importance, of that change, it is the duty of every friejM', of reform to register his-or her vote' on v Thursday next. The fight is mot, asi some would have us believe,, between' capital and llabour. It is a flight for reform in the administrative methods of the Government. So far as the Miasterton and Pahiatua seats are concerned, there is every hope, for success im tha.par.t of the Reform candidate. Messrs Herbert and Hawkins have both fought clean, honest' lights, a.iud they will doifbtless' use all their influence in the endeavour to complete the <rout of a party which has grown stale and infirm through >age and deerteplirtyude. It is confidently expected that the voters in Eketahima and other pant's of the Masterton. electorate who foiughifc gallantly for Ma* Herbert anld reform', willll see the importance of rallying round Mr Sykes in. the second balCb't. Tlie fate of the [Reform Party may depend upon this elector-. a,te. That being so, it is eminently desirable that the Reform candidate shorn M be returned. Mr Hogg has been an. estimable member m many respects. He has l done good service for the district. But he ha* a'eaidered himself out of touoih with public sentiment, audi tlhiat being so he must accept the inevitable. THie probabilities ai'e that either Mr " Mas-aey ox Sir Joseph Ward would be inclined to offer Mr Hogg a seat, in the Legis'lktiv© Council' in the event of biis -de- j feat.