THE Wairarapa Age MORNING DAILY. THURSDAY, JUNE 10, 1909. THE KAISER AND THE CZAR.

Wairarapa Age, Volume XXXII, Issue 3211, 10 June 1909, Page 1

THE Wairarapa Age MORNING DAILY. THURSDAY, JUNE 10, 1909. THE KAISER AND THE CZAR.

Unusual interest will attach to the visit which the German Emperor is to pay to the Czar at St. Petersburg on the 17th of thia month. That serious business is afoot must be gathered from the announcement that the German Emperor is to be accompanied by Prince Bulow, and that M. Isvolsky will be in attendance on the Czar. A London newspaper in commenting on the pacific utterances of German private citizens and on the amicable visits and return visits of municipal dignitaries and I others in England and Germany, drew attention once more to the well-known fact that the German people have nothing whatever to do with the foreign policy of Germany. The duty of shaping that policy rests solely with the Kaiser and the Imperial Chancellor. It is equally true that the foreign policy of Russia is not decided by the Russian people, but by the Czar and his Minister for Foreign Affairs. Hence the significant fact stares all Europe in the face that at the forthcoming meeting of the Kaiser and the Czar a decision m,ay be taken which may at once imperil the peace of the world. Sir Edward Grey said recently that either of two contingencies would endanger peace. If England endeavoured to isolate Germany, or if Germany endeavoured to isolate England, the worst might be anticipated. Seeing that the forthcoming visi of the German Emperor to the Czar is projected on the German Emperor's initiative, the only deduction possible is that he intends to propose to the Czar the adoption of a course favour able to the interests of GermanyShould tha Czar agree to that proposal, the first step will be taken in the direction of bringing about the very contingency which, according to Sir Edward Grey's warning, would be the signal for war. It

is difficult to avoid the suspicion that the Kaiser's object in visiting the Czar is to detach Russia from the "triple entente," and thus to destroy by one crushing blow the balance of power which has already been rudely shaken by the events of last March. At the end of .March, the German Ambassador at St. Petersburg, Count Pourtales, waited on M. Isvolsky, the Russian Foreign Minister, and demanded that Russia should abandon her opposition to the Austrian annexations in the Balkan Penin sula. It is said that the German Ambassador intimated plainly that if the Russian Government did nut consent Russia would be forthwith invaded. At any rate Russia did consent, and precipitately. England ' and France also consented, as soon as the Russian backdown was made known. It was a paralysing blow to the "triple entente" which had been so carefully prepared by the diplomacy of King Edward, acting in conjunction with the British Government, as a means of checkmating German-Austrian aggressions. But though the triple entente was scotched, it was not killed. Russia may yet recover from her unpreparedness, may re-arm her chain of forts on her western frontier, denuded of guns since the war in Manchuria, and may emerge from her troubles as a powerful friend or a dangerous enemy. That she should not emerge as the powerful friend of England as well as France is a cardinal object of Gerrrian policy. A sudden threat backed by the German - Austrian readiness for instant war was sufficient to make Russia abandon her western friends n the tripla entente as far as the Bosnia-Herzegovina question was concerned. But it is Germany's supreme interest that Russia should make a full renunciation —that she should withdraw the pressure of her weight upon the eastern frontier of the German Empire—that she should advance no single step further in the direction of joint action with England. The term* that the Kaiser will offer can only ba conjectured, but, judging by the cynical argument that was employed to convince M. Isvolsky in March, the "terms are not ikely to be excessively generous. Russia is bound to France by the Dual Alliance, but Rhe is not bound to England by any treaty more effective than the Anglo-Russian Agreement, which merely covers contingencies in Persia and 0.1 the Indian frontier. Hence it is conceivable that either by threat or cajolery Russia can be detached from England. It is also well within the bounds of possibility that France can be detached from England by a bold stroke like the threat of instant invasion, which Cuunt Pourtales found sa effective in bargaini'i? with Al. Isvolsky. The isolation of England would be complete, and the fulfilment of Sir 1 Edward Grey's prediction would be insight. This plain reading of the situation Jenda acute interest to the all-important question "Will the Czar stand firm?"