THE Wairarapa Age MORNING DAILY. WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 1908. WRAGGE ON WEATHER.

Wairarapa Age, Volume XXXI, Issue 2999, 23 September 1908, Page 4

THE Wairarapa Age MORNING DAILY. WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 1908. WRAGGE ON WEATHER.

An interesting little publication, with the ahove title, has been handed to us by a Masterton resident, and in view of the fact that one nut infrequently hears the remark. "Wragge has predicted another drought this season" a few extracts from the publication in question should prove interesting. In the first place we mav say that Mr Wragge does not appear to be very dogmatic in his predictions; secondly, if he has prophesied a drought in New Zealand during the 1908-9 season we arc unable to verify tho statement, and, thirdly, according to what wc have recently read, written by Mr Wragge, no drought should have occurred in the summer of 1907-8. Severe droughts are unusual in the Wairarapa, and we think the best view to take of the season just commencing is that the immediate repetition of an unusual occurrence is not at all likely. Pastoralißts and agriculturalists are, no doubt, somewhat nervous in regard to

the weather question, and it would be somewhat surprising if they were not, as another drought this season would be a very serious matter for the whole district, but, as we have said, Mr Wragge does not appear to have predicted anything of the kind, and, indeed, we do not see how he could do so without stultifying himself in regard to many of his previous utterances. Mr Wragge in his weather forecasts for 1904-5, after point-

ing out that the sun is merely a second class variable star, 1,300,000 times bigger than the earth, asks why is the sun variable. His answer is as follows:—"Because, like a woman, he is subject to moods—to good humour and bad humour. Or, as we scientists say, because he is subject to times of activity and to times of comparative rest. The time from the quiet to the active mood is about

three and one-half (3.52) yearsand trom the active to the next quiet mood about seven and one-half (7.55) years. During the Sun's periods of great activity, more and more of the so-called "Sun-spots" are observed—and, during the times of comparative rest, fewer, if any, of them. And what are these so-called

'spots?" They are gigantic hurri :anes piercing and tearing and rip ping through the Sun's three main atmospheres with an energy of which the human mind cannot form the faintest conception. They are the centres of solar cyclones. And in the "hollows" formed by these, this Earth would lie like a pebble in the crater of the greatest volcano. These flames and storms affect the earth, for, although the Sun is 92,000,000 miles away, that distance in astronomy is no more than the proverbial 'flea-bite.' " Mr Wragge goes on to say that "for the last six years (he was writing in .1904) the Sun has been in one of its quiet moods. There have been few Sun spots. And so, of course, it has not been sending us as much heat and energy as usual. The result is that the Earth has been cooling down more quickly. But why does the drought come just when the Sun has least energy? The answer is easy. When the Sun is less energetic, it really gives off less heat to the Earth. And how does the Earth cool? Simply by giving off its heat into the atmosphere And, this heat, passing in quivering waves upwards through the air, absorbs the vapours in the upper atmosphere and holds them in an invisible steamy state. Had it not been for that, greater cold would have prevailed far aloft, and the moisture would then have fallen in the shape ot rain. But when the Earth is cooling rapidly, the moisture is held •in suspense by the radiated heat. Hence the drought." The Sun's energetic period commenced, says Mr Wragge, in 1904, and he continues—"Month by month during this present period, his energies increase. All this time the Earth is responding—drinking in and saving up the electric and magnetic vitalising energies radiated from the Sun. Its atmosphere is alto effected. The moisture is no longer held in suspension by excess of radiated heat. The rainfall increases, because cold atmospheric currents aloft condense the vapuur by increased action and reaction in the air under an increase of solar energy. Then the water holes soon fill, the rivers start running, and the grass sprouts. . . . It takes the Sun just about three and one-half years to get from the time of its lowest energy to the time of its highest energy—and then the opposite change very gradually begins. You will reach the crest of the wave aLout December, 1904—good seasons will probably enhance 1906 and part of. 1907. Then, if you are wise, you will be prepared to see the seasons gradually grow drier with the disappearance of the "Sun-spots." At last, within 1912 13, you will probably reach the climax in another drought." Referring specially to New Zealand, Mr Wragge remarks, "the change in solar conditions will surely affect New Zealand, though not perhaps to the same extent as Australia." It is, therefore, somewhat difficult, as Mr Wragge is, of course, always right to understand how a drought could have occurred last year.