EDITORIAL.

Thames Star, Volume XLVII, Issue 10347, 21 April 1911, Page 4

EDITORIAL.

WEATHER CYCLES.

A THEORY EXPLODED.

We notice that the meteorologist for the Commonwealth has come, to the conclusion that the theory of weather cycles is useless as a basis for forecating weather on the eastern coast of Australia. He has compiled details of the) rainfall in Sydney and the surrounding country during 1 each month of the) past 70 years, and on these his opinion is founded. By means of a graph which he.has constructed, all the monthly totals greater or less than the average rainfall are clearly shown, and Mir Hunt says that a cursory glance at the diagram will convince the most artlent bielieiveir in tlio statistical basis for forecasting the seasons that the method cannot :bs applied to th© coastal districts of Newl South Wales. "During the whole period covered by the graph," liei said to an interviewer, "there is barely a single .instande where one month's rainfall, much less that of a season, coincides with the average. Tn fact, it would almost appear as if the line which represents the average were designed in many cases to awoidl the actual totals registered. Tho&e who are .wedded to a belief in weather cycles or recurrence of seasons may also We convinced that if such exist the 1 period over which our climate history ©xtendlsi is tmtloubtedly too short to establish a cycle of any practical use." The theory that tho rain of any season is an indication of Avhat the following season will bo ha's been dispelled by the fact thaiti tliera are as many instances of dry following wet seasonsthei^e ai'ei of ■ dry or 1 wet seasons following either kind. Some excessively dry seasons have been preceded and followed immediately by extraordinarily wet ones'. The driest year ever known in New Siouth Wales was 1888, but 1887 and 1889 were two of the tost years the State has enjoyed. Tlia most protracted drought ociciuTed during the t-ein monthia endled Jiuvei, 1902, the rainfall being 26in below normal. Some of ihe pT'olonged w ret periods have teen equally wide) of the! average. The wteiather prophet of Australia appoars to be confronted by many difficulties).