The Situation.

Thames Star, Volume XIII, Issue 4245, 9 August 1882, Page 2

The Situation.

[By T£iE&BAPHi] ■ (FSOM OUS OWN CORESPONDENT.) ■ . . WMiLiNaeos, L sfc night. About two o'clock to-day, after a meet- 1 ing of Montgomery's poople, Montgomery got in v cab and went and saw Grey, and then it was arragcd that a vote of want of confidence should be announced this day on the loan proposals., I was told not to wire the intention because there might be a slip after all, anrl if things came off the association would scud oui. the news, and if it did not come off and ifc were wired out the news would soon come back again. Macandrew has all along asserted that he would be no. party to a rote of want of confidence uutil he was sure it could be carried, and now he seems pretty sure of it. The secret was pretty well kept among the Opposition men, but the Government had a very shrewd suspicion what was afoot. On no other side could the Opposition attack the Government but on this of the loan proposal, and this was evidently their best chance, as many Government supporters are opposed to further borrowing. The Opposition will poll 45 votes, perhaps more, but I think there is no doubt of (his number. One thing which makes the Opposition's chance stronger than anything else is that Government have given quiet hints to their supporters that should they be defeated a dissolution may be looked for. I have reasons for believing that the relations between Whitaker and Bryce continue much strained. Beyond these details there is nothing to add, and nothiug known.

(From the Herald's Correspondent.)

The Opposition have chosen their own course, and have flung down the gauntlet. It now only remains to fight out the battle to the bitter end. If the division came off, to-night, I could give you the respective numbers pretty closely ; tUe relative numbers would be—Ministers, 48 or 49; Opposition, 46 or 45. I om aware that the Opposition leaders have been sayingjfrom the first that they would not stir a step till tbeir ground was su/e under them, acd they imply now <Uat they are sauguiue of victory. JN"ot so fheir fol!owers,|or at least many of the.;s. They say with great candourtbat tWy have not the slightest hope of wint)i g, for they give (he Government the sane majority as I have above estimated to be the smallest probable under citing circumstances—namely, a mnjo: iy of two. I f>,va disposed, howevt- 1, to think that the longer the division is delayed, the better the Ministerial chances, because it will enable the plain fact to be driven into aiaiubers'heads that the question, asitwai submitted to thsm by Mr Montgoaiti-y, is in reality net whether they approve or disapprove of farther borrowing or the Governornfc proposals, for all these points can be dealt with much mote effectually in discussing the Bills themselves. The whole question now raised is whether the present Government shall be turned out, a»d the spending of a new loan relegated to the present Opposition. There is a strong feeling iv the lobbies (hat ibis is :i mere " catch vole" motion, and not a straightforward challenge. Everybody outside of the Opposition ring is asking, " Why on earth did they put the thing off so long if tbey really intended it P" Of course if Ministers beat the Opposition on this question, they would hot stand anj nonsense afterwards on details of bills. Thus the action of the Opposition at this particular juncture will tend to prevent the due discussion of the loan

proposals on their intrinsic merits. For this, however, the Opposition care little, so long as they can defeat Ministers and scramble into office on any terms or at any cost to the country. I am credibly assured that in anticipation of the. coining victoiy there are no fewer than three promised premiers, four treasurers, fife attorney-generals, six ministers of public works, seven ministers of education, ten colonial secretaries, and twelve posfcinasters-general. In fact, a new Ministry such as this would require nearly the entire Opposition party. I have the best reason to know that should Ministers be beaten on their public works policy they will claim immediate dissolution, and appeal to the country on the specific point at issue. -Bat Ido not believe the Ministry to bo in any peril, unless some new ?nd unexpected iofliresjcesshouldinfluence themselves. On the contrary, I am convinced that barulng unforeen contingencies, the Government will win by at least two votes, more pro* bably four or six/and I should not in the least degree be astonished if the Ministerial majoritj" proved much larger than that; I have exeelbnt reason for believing that one or two members will rather surprise those who, set them down as staunch Oppositionists^ .