The European Situation.

Thames Star, Volume XI, Issue 3476, 14 February 1880, Page 1

The European Situation.

A writer in the Star, discussing the war rumours in Europe, says:— A real pretext for a war is wanting at present, for the Austrian occupation of Bosnia and Herzegovina took place a long time ago, With the approral of Russia, and t lie determination of Austria to ha?e a strategic railway with regard to Senria

does not seem to us to be a likely reason for a war. "We resist, as long as possible, the thought that a sovereign or.a nation should be so blinded as to load itself with the responsibility of the dreadful consequences that would follow in the train of such a European war. We must remember that the Emperor of Germany is an old man of 83 years, whose health is severely shaken by late trials ; that the Emperor of Russia is a Prince tired of his life and given to melancholy; that the Emperor of Austria is also no young man, and besides cautioned by former ill-auccess in war, and that finally, France, in consequence of her interior unsettled relations, ought only to wish for peace. It certainly is true, that such considerations cannot be trusted too much, for history shows numerous instances of more unlikely wars, and the policy of the Governments, the wishes and inclinations of the nations, are incalculable, and do not always follow wise and quiet reflections. But, although wishing to deny the probability, not being able so gainsay the possibility of an impending ~ war, we shall now try to consider, how, in human judging, lie the chances of the parties concerned ; what means are at their disposal; what hopes of success they may have; and how the events will happen. If the peace should be disturbed Russia only will disturb it, because she finds her conquests in Turkey endangered by Austrian and English demands; she hates Germany, seeing that this power supports them, and she hopes to divert by a war—her internal revolutionary troubles. Russia's ally, if the war is opened against Germany, will be France; Germany's ally, according to recent treaties, Austria, eventually England. So we have on one side Germany, Austria, and perhaps England ; on the other Russia and France. In the commencement of a war, there, would stand against each other—taking the latest war returns-r:2,475,000 Germans and Austrb-Hungarians (eventually 80,000 men more, counting England) against 3,891,000 Russians and Frenchmen.

The inequality pf this account will be equalised by the fact that the military preponderance and experience lies undoubtedly on the, first-mentioned side. Whilst the figures mentioned for Russia show a great number of men, how about their training and maintenance, and whence the officers, guns, ammunition, and—the money? These are important questions. Alsd the 732,000 men, " a disposition" mentioned under the strength of the French army, are quite "untrained, and, have never carried a rifle, whilst the German and Austrian armies place only highly trained men into the field. Till now we have not alloted to England a decided part, as she herself has not decided yet, but there cannot be a doubt;, England will never side with Russia, as all her interests lie on the GermanAustrian side, and therefore, an alliance of these three powers has been already talked about. To remain neutral in such a war would be impossible for England, as the guarantees, she entered into in Turkey and Asia Minor, will form a main object of the war, if it should break out. Having now reviewed the probable combatants and their relative strength, I shall in another article discuss the course such a war, if begun, would probably take.