THE Temuka Leader. SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 1891. EUROPEAN WAR.

Temuka Leader, Issue 2259, 26 September 1891, Page 2

THE Temuka Leader. SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 1891. EUROPEAN WAR.

It is hard to form any clear opinion as to the probabilities of a Europen war. One thing against it is that it is late in the season. Winter will be coming in shortly, and that season of the year is not suitable for carrying on a severe campaign in many parts of Europe. And yet appearances somehow indicate that there is au undercurrent of disquietude permeating the whole Continent. The Turkish relaxation of the Dardanelles treaty has been taken rather quietly by the European Powers, but still diplomatic negotiations appear to be going on regarding it. Apparently Russia is very self-assertive in the matter, aud Turkey is quite agreeable that the passage of the Dardanelles should be open to Russian war vessels. This is against treaties again and again renewed. Then there is apparently a good deal of illfeeling between France and Germany. By last mail came news of the publication by French papers of outrageously sensational stories concerning the German Emperor. In these he was depicted as a madman. Then the German Emperor made a very bellicose speech, and to-day we publish another speech by the Grand Duke of Baden, in which he is credited with having said that. Germany must unsheath the sword before long, as she had lost too much by peace. Then we find that the German Emperor wants to hold festivities in memory of a poet who was once instrumencal in inflicting defeat on France. From this it would appear that he is desirous to insult French feeling, so as to provoke hostilities. All this would seem to indicate a determination to fight, but as a wind-up we find the German Emperor relaxing the passport system in Alsace and Lorraine. These are two provinces which at one time belonged to Germany, but were taken by France. In the latest war between the two nations, however, these two provinces were retaken by Germany, and their loss is the cause of great soreness on the part of France. A large proportion of the population of these two provinces are French, and they would prefer the rule of France to that of Germany, consequently they are suspected of disloyalty, and the passport system is very severe. When, therefore, the German Emperor agrees to a relaxation of the passports in these provinces it is certainly an indication that he is peaceably disposed. The other day it appeared as if France and Russia were determined to join hands against the Triple Alliance, but now we find the Czar and Czarina of Russia coming to pay a visit to the German Emperor. This, too, would indicate peaceful intentions, but it cannot be regarded as reliable either way. A short time before the Crimean war the Czar of Russia visited England, and frequently and vehemently asserted his determination to maintain peace, but very shortly afterwards he was at war. It may be so now. But taking one consideration with another we incline to the belief that there is not the slightest intention on the part of either of these Powers to go to war. They have the example of France before them, Napoleon went to war with Germany in the hope that he would avert the public mind from republican tendencies. Napoleon fell, but the republic lives. Now all the European States are honeycombed with societies, such as Socialists, Nihilists, etc., and if the Government went to war these would no doubt watch their opportunity to acquire power, just as the French Republicans did. It is more than probable that twothirds of the great parading and military display are mere demonstrations intended to overawe internal discontent, and that the threats of war are merely a pretext for maintaining large armies to preventjrebellion at home. But they cannot give this as an excuse, as it would not be regarded as good enough, so it is necessary for them to resort to the strategy of pretending that they are going to fight someone else. For the last ten years they have been threatening war, hut it seems to be delayed, and th® conclusion we have eoipe to is that it is a makebelieve, in order to keep down Nihilism, Socialism, and so forth. However, this is only a supposition, and time alone will tell as regards its correctness.