THE Temuka Leader. SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 1891. PROSPECTS OF WAR.

Temuka Leader, Issue 2253, 12 September 1891, Page 2

THE Temuka Leader. SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 1891. PROSPECTS OF WAR.

Recent cable news seems to us to indicate that war is not at all an improbability. It is rather late in the season for Russia to think of war. She will soon be in the beginning of Winter, when she would labor under great disadvantages if engaged in war. And yet, what are the preparations and the manoeuvring for? and why has she insisted, as it seems she has, on forcing her way through the Dardanelles ? The Crimean war began practically under somewhat similar circumstances. There were the Allied Powers, resembling the Triple Allianee, the Eastern Question —which appears just as fresh to-day as it was then-—and there is still the question of the Dardanelles. All these questions were involved in the Crimean dispute, and though Russia was then subdued she has ever since shown discontent at the conditions which defeat imposed upon her. The Eastern Question chiefly consists in this: There are under Turkish rule several small States whose inhabitants are Christians of the Greek Church, and as head of the Greek Church the Czar of Russia assumes the position of Protector of them. He is continually interfering in the domestic policy of the Turk, but it is alleged that his solicitude for the wellbeing of his co-religionists is not sincere, and that he makes it a pretext to keep before the mind of Russia the extension of her dominions to Constantinople. It is alleged that in his last will Peter the Great urged upon Russia never to rest until she secured dominion over Constantinople.

There are good and valid reasons why Russia should desire this. She is practically locked in on the Southern side. The Black Sea is to the Russian a mere inland lake in time of war, as, under very old treaties, she is not allowed to navigate war vessels through the Dardanelles. A look at the map will show that the only outlet from the Black Sea is through the Bosphorous into the Sea of Marmora, thence through the Dardanelles into the Archipelago, and thence into the Mediterranean. The Dardanelles is a very narrow channel, and is entirely controlled by Turkey, who has a right to stop any war vessels from passing through it. This right has been secured to him by treaty again and again renewed. Of course there is no obstruction to commerce in times of peace, but war vessels are not allowed to pass through it, and thus Russia is practically locked in in the Black Sea. This, of course, is the cause of a great deal of annoyance to Russia, and the desire to open to herself this roadway to the high seas is alleged to be at the bottom of all her intrigue and all her international actions. Cablegrams published in our last issue inform us that the warships belonging to Russia have been allowed to pass through the Dardanelles with , the consent of the Sultan ; they also tell us that the Sultan has dismissed Ministers who were supposed to have been friendly to the Triple Alliance, and replaced them by others who are well disposed towards Russia. From this it is inferred that some secret understanding has been arrived. at between Russia and Turkey, but what it is has not transpired. This is the lion lying down by the lamb. Hitherto Russia has been the natural enemy of Turkey. The Crimean war was the result of Russian aggression on Turkey, and more recently still the two countries had a long and fierce struggle, in which the poor Turkey was plucked. What the move now is in which Turkey apparently throws herself into the arms of Russia, it is

impossible for us to understand. As diplomatists both countries are, to put it in classic language, " pretty tough." j The diplomacy of both principally » consists of deception. They are adepts at promising what they have no intention of performing. It is useless to speculate on what the secret understanding between the two Powers may be. but following so quickly on the visit of the French fleet to Russia we may be sure there is something in it. Then it would appear probable that there is some understanding between the French, the Russians, and the Turks, to do something to counteract the power of the Triple Alliance, while England appears to be free of all parties. England, however, must be in it if war ensues. England has always taken the part of Turkey for some unaccountable reason, and at times, too, when the great majority of Englishmen were heartily ashamed of the association. Englishmen have felt disgraced and ashamed of any connection with Turkey, especially after what is known as the "Bulgarian atrocities," and still English statesmen have stuck tenaciously to the policy of maintaining the Ottoman "—nire. So far as finyone can underbill,- object has had in this stand, the ci... ~ a buffer bewas to keep Turkey tw -- —orld. tween Russia and the outer v*.

And what will England do when that buffer seems determined on acting as such no longer ? Turkey was bound by treaty not to allow Russian war vessels io pass through the Dardanelles, and apparently that treaty she has violated. What* then, will be the outcome'? It is impossible for us to say, but, judging by present appear-

ances and preparations, we should not be surprised if we saw Europe in a blaze before long. We should be fully prepared for it, only that it is so late in the season, but who knows what is working behind the scenes ?