Desert Lull Shattered

Taranaki Daily News, 2 September 1942, Page 2

Desert Lull Shattered

Whether or not the flare-up reported from the Egyptian front immediately develops into a fullscale attack, it is as clear as anything can be in this war that the time for one side or the other to seek decision in Egypt must be drawing very near. The Middle East is a strategical link which, if broken, would be a military disaster of magnitude sufficient to influence to a perhaps unimagined extent the course and duraticn of the war. Since Mr. Churchill's visit to Moscow the Middle East has gained new significance in the eyes of some competent observers. It is believed that Britain, the United States and Russia have worked out a strategic plan envisaging the possible loss of the Caucasian oi! resources. Its main concern is to keep Russia in the field, even if the entire Rostov-Stalingrad-Astrakhan triangle is lost to the Germans. * ♦ * The plan is said to be based on the knowledge that with the Ukraine, Kuban and the Caucasus in German hands Russia's principal food and oil resources would be gone. Moreover, the Allied supply route via Murmansk is believed to have been practically cut off by the Germans. It will be recalled that a few days ago an American admiral said that convoy losses to Russia's Arctic ports might be as high as 50 per cent., and this is a loss rate that no supply system could stand up to indefinitely. It is, therefore, held that Britain and America will aim to maintain intact the southern supply route via the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. Washington observers conclude, as a consequence, that the contemplated second front of the United Nations will. probably be a combined Russian, British . and American front on a great crescent extending from Egypt, through Palestine. Syria, Iraq, the southeastern Caucasus, Iran and India to China. * * * In operation this plan would include the use of an army that it is understood Marshal Voroshilov has been training somewhere across the Volga. This force it is said would be combined with Marshal Timoshenko's army if the Germans succeeded in completely investing the Rostov - Stalingrad - Astrakhan triangle, and would. concentrate in the south-eastern "CofUc&sus, Iran and Iraq, and that. these forces would be joined by iBritish and American reinforcements. The oil of Iraq and Iran would supply the Russian army's deficiency in oil, while Britain and America would attempt to supply. ;. the Russian army's deficiency— particularly the armaments required~' "for Voroshilov's reserves — in ' "food and weaponsi There is a Second vital intent in the United Nations' eastern strategy. Tliis is to prevent German access to the Indian Ocean and a possible German- Japanese- conjunction in Asia. The Allies' Egyptian anchor assumes, therefore, first-rate importance in both these strategic concepts. * * * With an Axis mechanised army, under a general of proven skill and tenacity, situated so very near to the key to control of Egypt the margin of safety to Allied planning is a very thin one. Decision would, therefore, appear to be as vital for one side as the other and as the heat of the desert sun lessens, and as sandstorms and pests of the barren wastes tend to decrease in nuisance value with the approach of autumn, the time for decision would seem to be at hand. Both armies have been diligently preparing1- for the time when the desert lull would be broken. Both have been heavily supplied and reinforced, and both have endeavoured to take heavy toll of the opponent's accretions to his strength. The probable course of the battle is even more difficult to predict than former battles have been — and prophecy about them has invariably proved to be ill-founded. That it will be a different type of battle seems, however, to be a safe speculation if only because it will originally be initiated on a very narrow front with little room for manoeuvre. ' * * * This is, of course, unless some unanticipated factors in the matter of topography come into play. Enemy activity on the southern end of the British desert line suggests a familiar Nazi encircling tactic that would be ruled out by the presence of the salt marshes of the Quattara Depression but for a hint contained in a correspondent's dispateh of a few days ago. Without giving great prominence to the point, the correspondent referred to the southern end of the E1 Alamein line where, he said, "it was mistakenly thought that the nature of the ground would have . precluded operations, but actuaily the ground of the edge of the Quattara Depression is exceptionally good." There is, therefore, opportunity for surprising developments, and it would be well to be prepared for them. In other respects the battle will certainly present new features, particularly in the tactical use of guns. Discovery of the presence in the front line of German parachute troops— possibly on a mission of observation — may portend use of this arm of the Nazi forces. The answer to all the questions that arise can only be found in battle, but it is certain that the hugeness of the stakes involved in the Middle East will result in not only resolute defence of its front line, but also an effort to remove the enemy to a safe distance from the critically important eastern end of the Mediter-

ranean. Whether timo has yet permitted the gathering of sufficient strength to implement the second part of this programme is another matter.