JAPAN AND THE AXIS

Taranaki Daily News, 28 September 1940, Page 6

JAPAN AND THE AXIS

The announcement at Berlin that Germany, Italy and Japan have [signed a ten-year military, political and economic pact is one of considerable moment to New Zealand and Australia. If it is the preliminary to Japan's active participation in the war the pact may have cohsiderable influence upon Britain's conduct of the war. For the moment it appears that Japan has decided not to enter the war. According tcr a German broadcast the pact provides that all the signatories will give all help to any one of them if attacked by a Power not engaged in the present wars in Europe and in China. The Berlin statement added that Japan recognises the leadership of Germany and Italy in Europe and that those two Powers recognise Japan's leadership in Asia. But although this indicates that Japan is holding aloof from the European conflict experience of Axis diplomacy leaves room for doubt whether there is not a secret understanding, as in the case of Italy, that Japan will join the Axis Powers against Britain whenever such action seems' likely to bring victory to the totalitarian Powers.

* * » w If the pact is accepted at the face value given it in the Berlin statement it is fairly obvious that it is intended to counter any move by the United States to thwart Japanese ambitions in Eastern Asia and in the Pacific, or to join in the European war as an ally of Britain. Japan received definite warning from the United States Secretary of State, Mr. Cordell Hull, that America would take a serious view of any change in the status quo of Indo-China. In spite of that warning Japan has taken a step in the French colony which Mr. Hull characterised as having upset the status quo of Indo-China under duress, and he stated that the "United States would take steps to give concrete weight to its disapproval." Nor could the authorities at Tokio expect any change of attitude at Washington should the election in November result in Mr. Wendel Willkie succeeding Mr. Roosevelt as President. Mr. Willkie in his policy speech stated that "in the Pacific our ends can best be served by a strong, free and democratically progressive China, and we should render economic assistance to that end." A strong and free China does not square with Japanese ambitions. She has defied American opinion in regard to Indo-China, and the pact with the Axis Powers is apparently to counter the steps foreshado'wed by Mr. Hull whereby the United States would show its disapproval. * # * * In this period of ultra-realism New Zealand and Australia will be well advised to heed the possibility if not the probability of Japan becoming an active enemy of the British Empire. It is a contingency that must have ' entered into the calculations of the defence authorities. The Prime Minister has warned the Dominion that attacks upon its liberty might come almost without warning, and the decision to strengthen the home defences has been supported by the reorganisation of the territorial forces and their training. The collapse of France and the defcat of Holland have left rich plums in the East Indies and in Indo-China for Japan to seek. In the Dutch colonies she would obtain supplies of oil and other commodities essential to a prolonged war against Britain. In those colonies there is already a large Japanese population which has a firm hold of trade and industry and would doubtless prove a very effective "fifth column" should Japan decide upon a seizure of the Dutch East Indies possessions. With Britain deeply committed in the pro- j tection of the United Kingdom the entry of Japan into the war would , throw new and heavy responsibili- | ties upon New Zealand and Aus- | tralia, apart altogether from any , action the United States might take in such an eventuality. * • # # # There are two factors that may induce Japan to refrain from entering the war. The first is that to do so would weaken her efforts to conquer the whole of China. The second is that she depends upon Britain and the United States for her export and import trade without which her expansion would be impossible. So long as the Royal Navy is undefeated neither Italy nor Germany could afford Japan the economic assistance she would necd to compcnsatc hcr for the loss of trade with Britain and the Unit.cd States. And even if it is considered at Tokio that by seizure of the Dutch East Indies they can obtain essential supplies hitherto obtained from / merica and from thc British Empirc there would still remain the period during which Teorganisation

: of the seized territories must be | carried out. # * •* * The argument which is likely to have most effect upon Japan's future policy is the result of the battle for Britain now proceeding. When that ends in Britain taking the offensive in Europe against her enemies Japan wiifbe able to take advantage of 'he terms of the pact with the Axis as announced at Berlin. But in the meantime New Zealand and Australia must make themselves prepared for any eventuality, and do so without delay.