The Daily News. THURSDAY, JUNE 8, 1922. THE PREMIER’S WAR PROPHECY.

Taranaki Daily News, 8 June 1922, Page 4

The Daily News. THURSDAY, JUNE 8, 1922. THE PREMIER’S WAR PROPHECY.

Prior to the Washington Conference it was a settled dogma on the part of Australia, New Zealand, and even the Motherland, that the next war would be in the region of the Pacific, therefore it behoved the Empire to increase its Navy in readiness for the eventuality. The agreements made at Washington have been regarded as eliminating the Pacific menace, and justified the reduction of naval armaments by all the great Powers possessing and depending on naval strength. Apparently, no sooner has one war menace been removed than another springs into existence—dim and shadowy, yet spoken of seriously as a reason for keeping the citizens of the Empire trained and expert in military exercises. In raising the alarm that is familiar to most people “There are war clouds on the horizon,” Mr. Massey was seemingly wh,at is vulgarly termed “pulling the leg” of the people of New Zealand, but his predilection for forecasting events and creating a sensation appears to be deeply rooted. Like most predictions there is a tinge of Gilbertian humor in Mr. Massey’s remarks on this subject in the Christchurch district recently. It will be noted that he started out by declaring the existence of war clouds on the horizon, then expressed his belief that “if ’ another war did come it would come from North Europe, and followed this up by asserting that he could | not say “when” the next war will come, for the simple reason that he did not know. As a matter of fact the Premier, for some reason or other, had an inspira- ■ tion to put two and two together and make the result of the addition five, merely because the German Government and the Soviet rulers have entered into an agreement, chiefly for- economic pur- . poses, but which is construed by some politicians as an offensive j and defensive alliance, whereas the agreement is little else than a bluff to the Allies, although it offers the Germans a great opportunity for exploiting Russia for so long as the Soviet authorities and the people will submit to the process, and Germany’s purse can stand the strain. What Russia wants is money—so does Germany. Both countries know only too well that war is not a paying business, and so far as Germany is concerned she is firmly tied up as to the manufacture of warlike weapons and munitions for many years to come. What Germany needs is trade and raw materials for manufactures. The Premier, looking through these war clouds i he sees on the horizon, regards ■ Germany and Russia as “two powerful nations.” From a population point of view they may answer the description, but not in any other sense. If there is one menace that Germany fears more than another it is Bolshevism, and that alone is a quite sufficient reason to induce the German authorities to counteract that menace by a Pact. If that arrangement is carefully and impartially, reviewed, it is probable that the result would be to pronounce it an astute expedient to bring pressure to bear on the Allies for more favorable treatment of outstanding differences with Germany and Russia. If it is/o take ten, twenty, or fifty years—or even a century—for these war clouds, that are now discernible by. Mr. Massey, to gather sulSeient strength

to create a storm, the present generation need not be unduly alarmed. The feature which does not seem to have occurred to the Premier is that he touched on rather dangerous ground in view of the near approach of a general election, the obvious inference to be drawn from his speech being its justification of large expenditure on military training. There is' a wide gap between rational patriotism and militarism. Already the Dominion’s expenditure on defence is far heavier than circumstances warrant, and if this war scare is to be used as a lever for further military expenditure, it will certainly alienate support from the present Government. No one knows what may happen in the next half century, but the strenuous efforts that are being made to ensure and maintain peace are not assisted by predictions of war, nor is it politic to give utterance to disquieting assertions arising from optical illusions.