PRODUCE YEAR.

Taranaki Daily News, 5 January 1922, Page 8

PRODUCE YEAR.

MEAT, WOOL, BUTTER AND CHEESE. RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT. (Wellington. Post.) Look back on 1921 from the standpoint of the producer; it is seen to be a year full of new problems. There have been slumps in the wool, meat and dairy produce markets before; but conditions were not the same. New problems have arisen, and the old methods of solution do not apply to them. When this year, 1921, opened prices for meat, wool, butter and cheese were still good, if not high. The former war prices looked as though they were going to stand for all time—at any rate some people thought so. They entered into or were not perturbed about commitments made in respect to land bought on the strength of the prices prevailing for all that was got out of it—the only test of its value. Medium to good crossbred wools were bringing over Is per pound, lamb well over that figure in London, and the demand for mutton and beef from this country was good at what to-day, twelve months later, look like dreamland prices. Lamb was then practically unobtainable. To-day prices are well down, but not lower than they ever have been. It is the incidental charges, cost of production, preparation, carriage and distribution that are top-heavy in comparison with the returns. But there was another important factor in this Dominion’s progress that gave a sense of security to the producer that he does not now enjoy. It was the operation of the Department of Imperial Government Supplies. From 1915 to early" in this year it had gone on buying meat, wool, butter and cheese, paying for them practically cash against store, warrants, and relieving producers of all concern as to freight rates, shipping space, insurance, demurrage and delay. It paid out millions of pounds for meat, for wool, for butter and cheese, and it paid better prices for them th ah they had ever realised before. Great Britain’s necessities were the Dominion’s opportunities. MILLIONS PAID OUT. The money rolled into the country. When great profits were made by the British Government on some portions of its purchases, then the producers here became 'dissatisfied. They asked for a share in these profits, and received them on butter —the first year's trading—and on wool. The termination of this business as to meat, cheese and wool came in last year, and as to butter this year. But, the taste of Imperial Government prices was still sweet in the mouth when the 1921 season opened. The New Zealand wool marketing opened with prices well below sellers’ ideas of vallues, but the prices of January last look good, to-day. Then super crossbred sold at. lOd to ln July it was down to 5d or 6d. The extent of the fall speaks for itself.

The depression in the British meat markets appears to be primarily due to lack of buying power on the part, of the people. Considering the extent of unemployment and distress in Great Britain this is not to be wondered at. But the Government is evidently of opinion that that is not the sole cause, and hence the devising of a scheme to deal with the New Zealand meat export trade on a great and uniform scale not hitherto contemplated. None of the new season's meat has yet tested the market, but it presently will be there, and will have to face large accumulations of “old” meat—a prospect that is certainly alarming—unless steps are speedily taken to dispose of such old stock. Dairy produce, as official and private cablegrams show, is in an exceedingly awkward position. The London market has been fairly tested with new season’s butter from New Zealand, and the tendency of that market, is downward all the time. Here, again, old stocks block the way. The British Government has 830,000 boxes of such butter to get rid of, and it was proposed to do this in a block sale. NEAR PRE-WAR PRICES, The effects of such a transaction would be disastrous on the prices fox’ Australian and New Zealand newlymade butter but recently entering tile London market. Prices of New Zealand butter to-day are getting perilously near pre-war prices, and they are falling. Cheese likewise has a downward tendency, and the falls during December have been both sharp and substantial. But not only Australian and New Zealand butter have fallen; Danish and Argentine have also come down with a run.

So closes the year 19-21 for wool, meat, butter and cheese. What of 1922 No one can say with certainty; but there arc hopes for an improvement in WOOL and much is expected to come out of the so-called meat pool. As to wool, the former trump card in the New Zealand exporters’ hand, Messrs. Dalgety and Co., take -a very hopeful view. They are ns cautious in prediction as they are careful in their chronicling of events in the wool trade. Dalgety and Co. have just reported for general information as follows:

“It is most satisfactory to find the demand and tone of the wool market so well' maintained, considering that the London sales have been held during 0. period of great uncertainty, with strong disturbing movements both in political and financial spheres. It is confirmed from many districts that improved competition in l/ondon represents actual new business which is flowing Into the mills, especially for hosiery,

cheap woollen goods, and knitting yarns. Unfortunately a’ similar revival is not yet apparent in the fine worsted trade, although old stocks are gradually being depleted.

“There has been much uncertainty and nervousness regarding the new year, but consumers in the Home trade are not heavily stocked, and generally find a sound, healthy, hand-to-mouth turnover. The delicacy of the financial position still acts as u wholesome deterrent, and most people are going slowly and safely. In the face of' the December stocktaking the Home industry seems likely to enter the new year in a much sounder and healthier condition than a year ago, Finance, rates of exchange, and credit are still the chief adverse factors, but there are a few rifts in the clouds which encourage the hope of a notably belter spirit in industrial circles. There are evidences that consumption undoubtedly is improving. If this continues the bogey of heavy supplies ought to have disappeared by the end 'if 192'2.” A COMING TEST. The coming January wool sales at Timaru, Wellington, Napier, and Wellington will offer a fair test of the accuracy of Dalgety and Co.’s conclusions. The buying for America in the last Wellington sales was a happy augury. An .(• in the coming Is to be with some show

The ddiry produce prospects of 1922 are still obscure. It may be necessary at the end of the export season ort April 30 next to seriously think about a practicable butter and cheese pool, once the details are all known of the proposed meat distribution scheme. That would be a matter for consideration at the great annual conference at Palmerston North next June. To sum up: Wool looks better for 1922; returns from mutton and lamb may be improved during 1'922; with regard to butter and cheese, the decline of their values at the end of 1921 has been so rapid that in the nature of things there may be a recovery in the market in time to benefit shipments now loading and yet to go. If anyone really knew, such prescience would be worth a fortune. It is the hardihood more than the foresight that is rewarded. in dealing with commodities of this sort. Many people foresaw, and said so at the time, that the low values of wool in July were such that an enormous amount of money could be made by anyone who could buy and hold. This has already turned out as predicted. But it was risky. The same might be said of butter and cheese if they could be held indefinitely. But the holidays over, and the British Government stocks problem satisfactorily dealt with, it would not be surprising to see the butter and cheese markets “stabilised” when the trade year of 1922 is fully opened.