BUTTER SURPLUS.

Taranaki Daily News, 22 July 1921, Page 8

BUTTER SURPLUS.

ADVICE AS TO DISPbSAIu ■ ‘ THE SEASON’S PROSPECTS. Mr. Maurice Nathan, managing director of Messrs. Joseph Nathan and Co., Ltd., London, who is now touring New Zealand, haa just returned/to Wellington from a visit to the- Afanawatu, Hawke’s Bay and Taranaki districts. In a chat with a representative of the Wellington Times, Mr. Nathan referred to the decision of the Gowmment to pennit the export of creamery butter up to a maximum of 30,600 tons. “This proves,” he said, “that there is a large quantity of butter in store over- and above the Dominion’s requirements.: There is likely to be more, between now and the end of August, when the Government subsidy gives out. It is my opinion that the dairy factories <wiil do well to follow the precedent of the United States and Germany, whefi they have a similar surplus of manufactured articles —they “dump” them on foreign markets, irrespective of the price they secure for them. NEW ERA OF BUYING. “The disastrous coal strike in the Old Country has; come to an end, and factories will be working double enabling British workmen to earn sufficient’ to buy our products, butter and cheese. Added to this, there has been a very severe dry spell in the United Kingdom, leading to a curtailment of the manufacture of these products. Again, Germany, France and Belgium have all been short of butter and cheese, and, whilst New Zealand butter, on June 10, was sold in England by the Imperial Government at 192 s cwt., although it cost somewhere about 300 s landed in Londpn, Danish butter at that time was being bought by those countries at 20Os to 2065, thus proving that they were heavy buyers. There is no doubt in my mind that a large number of English produce houses would be only too willing to sell stored New Zealand butter for export, and so would I, if I could get it, but I consider it my duty to advise not only our clients but all dairy factories to take the risk, and authorise their agents to ship such surplus as they are allowed to on open consignment. The net result will be better for the factories than selling at the price they are offered at present. 1 ’ Mr. Nathan was asked for an opinion as to the relative chances of salted or unsalted butter on the English market. “There is always a bigger demand fot salted butter, say, 80 per cent,” he replied. “But whether th ■ market will be the premium that should exist on tne high prices ruling to-day is a question I cannot answer, because, in pre-war days, the premium for unsalted was 2s per cwt., nominally about 2 per cent. On the same basis, of to-day’s prices, the premium should be 4s to ss. For the purpose of getting rid of their surplus, I would advise factories to send salted butter.” PROSPECTS FOR COMING SEASON.

“The of dairy produce for the coming season is very bright from a normal point of view,” said Mr. than, in reply to a further question. “If the dairy farmer is going to continue to expect war prices, or their equivalent, for two years after it, he will be disappointed; but, if he is a reasonable man, and will be content with a price that is still much in advance of pre-war rates, there is no reason why dairying should not continue to bo the mainstay of the Dominion’s prosperity. Look at the world’s figures of dairy production. In 1913 Great Britain imported 220,000 tons of butter. In 1921 this had dropped to 80,006 tons. In 1914 Denmark shipped to the United Kingdom 88,000 tons; last year only 34,000 tons. During this year, German*, France and Belgium have been buying large quantities, and, strange to say, the United States has been a big buyer. America will buy again, for the reason that dairying has ’been a hard life there, and a large volume of farming population has gravitated to the cities, attracted by the big wages paid during the war. Siberia used-to ship England 50,000 tons annually, and now is shipping none.

“Where is England going to get her butter, unless it is from New Zealand. Australia and the Argentine, and, in a lesser degree, Canada and South Africa. In the whole of the northern hemisphere there has been a drought, and, even if beneficial rains fall now, it will be too late for the coming season, both fqr butter and cheese.” BUTTER OR CHEESE? On the question that is occupying the attention of dairy farmers—whether butter or cheese will be ultimately the more profitable—Mr. Nathan was’ guarded in his opinion. “To anyone accustomed to give a reliable or stable opinion, it is too early to assume the role of prophet. It is too early to anticipate- what is to be the price of butter, even as early as September next, the opening of the season; The world Is still .unsettled. We have seen the disastrous results of the coal strike, and there is no telling, in the unstable-posi-tion of society at the present day. Much more difficult, therefore, would it be to anticipate events for the balance of the season, the next eight or nine months. There has been industrial chaos, drought, uncertainty of foreign relations, trade depression. The Brit ish market- is influenced so strongly by sentiment, which those closely associated with it know so well, and it is only fair to prepare farmers for possible disappointments. “Where water has once ’been, it will flow again.” We cannot always have top prices. The market may slump again, and we must pot be disappointed,”