“PASSED THE APEX”

Taranaki Daily News, 22 June 1921, Page 4

“PASSED THE APEX”

A BRIGHTER OUTLOOK. MARKETS RIGHTING THEMSELVES. “We have passed the apex, and from now on we should eee a steady but nevertheless sure recovery,” stated Mr. W. B. Carmichael, one of Australia’s biggest commercial men. He passed through New Plymouth yesterday on his way back to Australia. Mr. Carmichael, who is the head of Carmichael and Co., Ltd., which handles nearly all the newspaper that corned to Australia and New Zealand, is a world traveller, and has just returned from a visit to Canada, the United States, England and Europe. It is the eleventh trip of a similar kind he has made during the past six years, and, being an alert and keen business man, who is in touch with important business interests at Home and in America, his views on matters that are of concern to most people just now are worth recording. Mr. Carmichael thinks we bavo touched bottom in regard to trade and finance, but that we will feel the efiects of the depression for some time to come—possibly for a year. After the armistice there was a lull, then a sharp upward movement until peo’le practically lost their heads. It was everywhere the same. There really was no justification for so much optimism and so much inflation, for the world had come through a terribjy trying ordeal, and much had to be done to reconstitute trade and commerce. Then came the recoil. Markets dropped suddenly from the roof to the ground. There was no steady decline; no halting halfway. Prices for Australasia’s products, except dairying products, dropped" below cost of production. Concurrently high-priced goods came into the colonies in ship-loads. Result: Absorption of credit, tightness of money and slackness in trade. EUROPE MUST HAVE CLOTHES. Mr. Carmichael went on to say that there was no occasion to feel despondent about the situation, which, he felt confident, would soon right itself. After the war the European people had to feed themselves. They had been deprived of necessities during the war and food was therefore their first consideration. They did not worry about clotles, especially woollen clothes. Now they were wanting clothes, and Europe was again in the market for Colonial wool-;. The markets were consequently showing a distinct improvement, and this was going to make a considerable improvement, both to Australia and New Zealand. Wool that was now packed in sheds and warehouses would gradually be liberated and turned into money, enabling credits once more to be established in London. Banks were quick to reflect the improvement, and facilities that were impossible to obtain but a few weeks ago were now available to the business house. Another factor which was tending to improve the situation was the decrease in imports. In Australia there was almost a cessation of importation, and money, therefore, was not required to finance new imports. Europe could not get along without wool and meat, and very soon these would again become payable and profitable. The world took fright at the mounting prices for all commodities, and stopped buying even necessaries. The people are getting over their fright, and are resuming buying, cautiously, perhaps, but surely. * The drop in importing might cause a shortage in the next three or four months, and he would not be at all surprised to find a mild boom; but this would give way to settled conditions. Mr. Carmichael found things in New Zealand pretty much the same as in Australia, except in the dairying districts. “You are a fortunate people in Taranaki,” he continued. “I never saw better country in my life than that between Wanganui and New Plymouth, and I can now understand the reason for Taranaki’s prosperity, even in a time like the present. You need not fear for your future. Good butter and cheese ’like you produce are wanted, and wanted badly, at Home; and when the strike is over the markets will improve and stabilise at a point that will ensure payable prices here.” THE NEW GERMAN SPIRIT. When in Europe a month or two ago, Mr. Carmichael visited Germany, and was much impressed by the spirit or the Germans. “They are working fourteen hours a day, and one day a week they give to their country in order to meet the reparation claims. All their industries are going at full capacity. The paper mills have been allowed by the Allies to export 11,000 tons of news print monthly —their pre-war output. The German is a shrewd individual, and gets paid in British currency, which is worth twelve to thirteen times that of his own. In other words, a British shilling in Germany is worth twelve to thirteen marks. The German, therefore, can afford to sell under the Briton every time.” Mr. Carmichael said that the variation in the parity of exchange was responsible for some queer situations. He instanced the case of the Londoner who left England with £5O, travelled to I rance, then to Italy, Austria, Germany and Holland. He had quite a long and enjoyable holiday, and actually had more than £5O left on his return to England. It was all caused by the appreciation in the value of English money on the Continent, and the difference in the Continental parities. THE FATUOUS AUSTRALIAN. In contrast with the industry of the Germans he instanced the disinclination of his fellow Australians to buckle to and so bring down the cost of living, and develop the illimitable resources of the Island Continent. “When I got back the industrial leaders had given out the order that no union should, if it could prevent it, agree to work more than 36 houre a week. Industrial sui- ' cide, I call it. See what took place at Cockatoo Island, where the inquiry elicited that many of the workmen used to attend race meetings and yet figure on the pay roll, through the connivance of some of the foremen who were alike unconscientiously minded. The average Australian is a simple-minded, good fellow, who is easily led: but, unfortunately for him, he has of late years got under the influence of extremists, generally from other countries, who have an ineradicable grouch against mankind. What is going to happen it is impossible to say. But if Australia is to become a great nation—and it has every natural advantage to enable it to do so -then this go-slow, destructive and anti-national spirit must be exorcised.” Mr. Cal-michael was in New York when the smash came. He mentioned that one big house dealing in articles bought by the rich, cut its prices immediately by 65 per cent. Others followed, utterly soared to be left with

big stocks. The motor car trade completely collapsed. Nearly all the workmen there have motors which they buy on time payments. They stopped payments, and thousands of ears wefe left on the hands of the dealers and manufacturers. It will take a long time before this industry gets back again on a stable footing, said Mr. Carmichael. PRAISE FOR THE BRITISHER. His travels over the world have shown Mr. Carmichael that there is no better man for business, no shrewder, more capable, resourceful and honorable than the Englishman. He had a great name and a great reputation the world over, and the world war and the dislocations and difficulties since had but served to enhance them. At one time the Americans thought they could make New York the financial centre of the world instead of London, but they reckoned without the Londoner, who bad the confidence, as he had had the past custom, of the other nations—and London etill is, only in a greater degree than ever, the financial centre. When he left England lately he formed the opinion that she was rehabilitating herself rapidly. Everything was proceeding smoothly; albeit trade was slumping somewhat, but he was afraid th»; coal strike would set her back considerably. “It is conceivable,” concluded Mr. Carmichael, “that as a result England may be devitalised and actually become a second-class manufacturing nation, all because of the unreasonable’ ness and fatuity of her ill-led industrial workers.” Trade would leave her, market’s would be closed to her, just as had beer, the case \<ith South American ports whien before the Australian miners’ strike got their supplies from New South Wales. Now that trade is in the hands of the Americans, probably for good. “They are a commercially covetous lot, are the Yankees, and they are after British trade wherever they can find it. For that reason I <un afraid the coal strike at Home must re&iilt in great future loss to the nation, as well as accentuating the difficulties under which she was laboring before th? present crisis.”