THE ELECTIONS.

Taranaki Daily News, 27 December 1919, Page 6

THE ELECTIONS.

VOTE-WEIGHT AND PARTY STRENGTH, 'iJIE FIRST-PAST-THE-POST SYSTEM. On almost all hands one hears criticisms of the electoral system which gives its verdict to the candidate who, out of never mind how many, polls the most vo-ies, and has no regard for the fact that, his total may be only a minority in fact (says the Wellington Post). Analysis of the results of the election just past gives particularly interesting evidence of the sort of position that is created under the "first-past-the-post" system. They can be clearly expressed in a few simile tables and brief comments upon mem.

The toial number of valid votes polled was well over half-a-million By adding the votes of all the candidates wearing similar "labels" together, the distribution of these votes among the parties is obtained, and this is shown in the following table, in which the data are given for the elections of 1914 and 1919:—i

1919 1914 Reform 194,333 242,065 Liberal 164,096 219,011 Official Labor 125,970 Independ. Labor 19,001 Labor _ 53,427 Independent 14,424 1,404 Totals 518,324 515,907 If these votes were parcelled out in equal amounts to seventy-six appropriate candidates, so that the parties would be as exactly as possible proportionately represented, the House would be remarkably different, from what it now is. The discrepancy in the newly elected House is far greater than was the case after the 1914 elections, an can be seen from the tabulated statement following. Under the heading S.P. in each case are given the numbers of members actually returned; and alongside, headed P.R., are the numbers that would be in duo proportion to the electors, as shown in the first table. These latter numbers do not work out in complete units, and the nearest whole number is given to avoid the necessity of theoretically electing here and there a man with only one leg, or with no head. 1919 . 1914 S.P. PR. S.P. P.R. Reform ■ 44 29 39 30 Liberal 19 24 31 32 , Official Labor 8 18 Independent Labor 3 3 Labor Independent 22

An electoral system which returned members exactly in proportion to the weight of party vote therefore would have given Mr. Massey fifteen fewer in his following; and five of these would have gone to the Liberal camp, and ten to official Labor. The present position is that Mr. Massey heads a party two and a third times the strength of the Liberals in the House, though the Reform vote in the country was less than a fifth greater than the Liberal. The Reform candidates together polled a little over half as many again as official Labor: but the Reform candidates elected are five and a half times as numerous.

Another way of expressing the same general idea is to conrpare the recorded votes in- terms of single members. Taking the whole election, each returned candidate represents an average electorate of 6817- But one Reform member represents on the average 4420 Reform electors; one Liberal speaks for 8045 Liberal members of the populace; and no fewer than 15,740 supporters of Official Labor have to share the service of the imaginary average member of the color. The Independents are nearer the mark —6354 for the Labor and 7209 for the plain.

Three and four-cornered contests contribute largely to such conditions as ha", been set out above. They also result, in many cases, in the retnm "at the head of the poll" of men who actually have only minority votes; <ind there are many such cases this year. In the electorates where more than two candidates went to the poll only seventeen of the winners had actual majorities. Twelve of these were Reform, three Liberal, and two Labor. Their names follow: T. W. Rhodes, .T. S. Dickson, Parr. Massey, Bollard, Jennings, Lang, Hockley, Young, Sykes, Veiteh, Field, Forbes, Sutherland, Nosworthy, Horn, and Anderson.

The various parties shared very fairly the. honor of receiving winners on minority votes —Reform fifteen, Liberal six, Labor four, Independent one. The following list shows the number of vptes gained by the candidate in ouestion and the total of the votes polled for his rivals.

"REFORMERS MUST NOW HE LIBERALS."

Tho Bulled in Star says, all things considered, the returns show that Mr. Massey is again 011 the administrative velvet. If ho and his strong party prove true to the spirit and aims ot his iuukvfesto. the Prime Minister may equal the late Mr. Seddon's great record in respect, to length of service as head of the (!overnment. It is to he hoped that the n mazing victory will .not resurrect .the interred spirit of Conservatism. The Reformers must now be Liberals in act and administration, or they, too, must become a bewildered rabble of babblers. Many surprising results were anticipated, hut nothing to equal the surprise of the decisive defeat of Sir .Toseph Ward by a candidate who entered the tournament rather late, and was denied apparently by his opponent to be unworthy of a serious contest. Optimism has betrayed a man who has rendered splendid service to his country and to his Umpire. Obviously the political influence of the P.P.A. is much more powerful than most people had imajrined it to be. It is regrettable that sectarianism should tak< so prominent a part in poli'tics. Sir .Tames Allen has just escaped similar punishment, his narrow vieioqr ia Triish is .ractiisljr ~

moral defeat, being undoubtedly due to the influence of .the P.P. A. It i 9 another lesson that a gracious manner is an asset in politics. We had hoped that the electors of Bruce would have been more appreciative of Sir James Allen's magnificent war service. In view of the immense success that has been thrust upon Mr. Massey, it is now very unlikely that an early session of Parliament will be arranged. The Prime Minister has got a very definite mandate to carry on. He lias repeated his triumph at' the Peace Conference, and must be very happy.

LABOR'S VOTE. IN 1914 AND 1919. INTERESTING COMPARISONS. One of the features of the late election was the very large Labor vote, which was far heavier than has ever before been recorded. This was due to the fact that the number of Labor candidates standing for election was great. There were about 60 altogether, counting in the Independents, as against twenty in the 1914 elections. The total Labor votes polled in l'Jl4 was 53,427; on Wednesday it was approximately 144,915. A ready method of making a comparison is to present the total Labor votes in 1914 and 1910 in those electorates which Labor contested on both occasions. They are:—

It has always to be remembered jn omparing results that nearly all the electoral boundaries have been changed; but the effect is probably not large over a number of electorates. This group totals 53,427 votes for 1914, and 64,464 for 1919. Among the more notable features of the table are the very large increases in Auckland Central, Wanganui, Palmerston North, Christchureh South, and .von. Equally notable, and perhaps even more interesting, are the "slumps" not indicated in Parnell and Lyttelton. In Parnell, Labor appears to have lost votes to both the Reform candidate (Mr. Dickson) and the Liberal (Mrs. Baume). In Lyttelton, however, the unsuccessful Reform candidate secured about the same number of votes >on each occasion, and Mr. McCombs' deficit is very closely paralleled by the votes that went to the two Liberal candidates.—Wellington Post.

REFORM. Manrter 2225 3318 4026 4942 M'Nicol 2663 3552 Campbell 3122 4393 Sylces .. 220G 4342 3199 3509 2770 4010 3710 4920 Newman, A. K 4089 5590 Wright . 4280 5187 Hudson 2329 3000 .Tones .. 2534 3936 Dickson, M 2599 2999 Malcolm 2129 3432 Bitcliener 2304 3576 LIBERAL. Myers .. 3433 4943 Brown . 2679 5063 Wilford . 3281 454G Atmore . 3293 3807 M'Callum 2353 4245 Witty .. 2840 4167 LABOR. Parry .. 3673 4047 Savage . 3750 4684 Bartram 2991 5207 M'Combs 2939 4125 INDEPENDENT. Lysnnr . 2903 4790

1914. 1910. Eden 1538 Auckland Central ... .. 1751 3073 Grey Lynn \ 3355 Parnell 2199 Raglan 1871 Wanganui - . 3330 5413 Palmerston 3488 Otaki lr.4(i Wellington North .... .. 10S8 2144 Wellington East .. 4014 3201 Wellington South .... 3313 Wellington Suburbs .. .. 2256 3033 Buller and Grey 5940 Clyistehurc'h East .. .. 2203 3335 hrjstchurch South .. 2174 4951 Avon 5004 Lyttelton 2939 Dunedin Central .... .. 3732 4099 Dunedin North . 4073 375(1