CAMPAIGN PROSPECTS.

Taranaki Daily News, 6 December 1919, Page 9

CAMPAIGN PROSPECTS.

THE PARTIES. (From Our Own Correspondent.) Wellington. Dec. 2. The one thing certain about the approaching general election is that none of the three parties engaged in the contest will obtain a majority of the votes polled. This need not mean that neither the Reformers nor the Liberals will have a majority in the new House of Representatives. The Reformers in 1014 obtained many thousands fewer than half the votes cast in the election of that year, and yet they had a majority of two in the House. Under the system of proportional representation. with one vote one value, they would have been in a minority of two as agaiiist the combination of Liberals and Lnboritcs, so that the existence of single electorates and the operation of the "country quota" gave them four seats more than they would have obtained by their mere numbers. The electoral law has not been amended since then, and the same thing may happen again either way this month. PARTY OPTIMISM. Meanwhile each of the three parties through its newspapers and on the platform is expressing itself confident of success. The Labor Party, of course, does not pretend to believe it is going to win more than half the seats in the House. But it has persuaded itself that it it going to win from tfteea to tww*

ty, and that with this representation U will be able to make very favorable terms with one or other of the other parties. The Reformers, on the other hand, profess to believe that they will increase their majority of one (their majority of two having been halved by ihe result of the Taranaki by-election') to six or seven, and that with this margin tliev will bo able to carry on very comfortably. The Liberals, on their part, see forty-three or forty-four seats within ■'■ heir grasp and five or six others going to Independent Labor that will naturally gravitate into the "progressive" camp. SPECULATIONS. • From all this it may be judged that the leaders of the parties themselves are greatly puzzled by the position. The fact that boys and girls who never had given a serious thought to politics when the war broke out have been getting on the roll at the rate of eight or nine hundred thousand a year since 1014 makes it difficult to prophesi with the certainty that make- fitr safety. But it is not very hazardous to sav that tlie Labor =uceessea. iiHnding both official and Independent, will not exceed ten or twelve at the outside Of these not more than three can be of tht extremist type, so thai either of the oh' parties securintr as man- a* fnrtv-fivc or fortv-six seats wo»ld he phV -p enrry on without difficulty. 'Tiv genera' rminion here is +Vint the Refo'-mer* an'' Liberals now deelnrn? th"n>e"l-e* as Jr dependent« would retnrv ti> the';- oh! loves in the case o*f n crucial division. ELECTORAL REFORM. One of the notable results of the clesc balancing of parie*—ov whal nuininto be the close balancing of '-ar.',.■■;-..;.; a disposition on the part of foroi.r opponents of proporl : onal representitiou to look with kindlier 1 eyes now that reform. Even the Post, but vesterday. as it were, liiud!\ denoniieinr the system, is now warmly supporting Dr. Newman in demanding its imrnrinction. "Both parties." it says, "are ohv>ou«l\ afraid to touch the omitrv cWforatA becausc the latter's 28 per cent quota (an electoral subsidy fix.d by -la-iitc for rural constituencies* cannot well he re conciled with proportional representation, and if it is a case of sticking tc principle or offending the '2S per cent country electorates, then principle n>u-< go. The instalment nlan of lite Ward, itcs is less contemptible than the Reformer's eloquent silence: but neither of them is n guarantee that Dr. Vewmnn' hope will be realised." The marvel '•■ that Labor is as silent on this subject as is the Prime Minister.