GERMANY'S LOST TRADE.

Taranaki Daily News, 8 November 1919, Page 11

GERMANY'S LOST TRADE.

HOPES OF A REVIVAL. NEED FOR FINANCIAL HELP. DEPENDENT UPON ALLIES. "Ships and shoes and sealing wax," and all other things dealt in at large seaports have been staple subjects of conversation. 1 have had during a stay of several days' duration in Hamburg and Bremen, -writes the special correspondent of a. London paper. I have talked with shipowners and merchants who formerly had world-wide connections, and with allied and neutral representatives who are at present in those cities trying to re-establish the bonds of commerce. In those two cities, in which was handled the bulk of Germany's seaborne trade, the cutting off of that trade has been felt with more concentrated effect than anywhere else, and it is in such great ports that the people are watching most anxiously how German trade is to revive, and what are the most probable lines of its development. The voice of the commercial neutral is very loud in those cities, where there are also many Americans; but the tardiness of English firms in sending representative's is very much commented upon. The genera' feeling amongst commercial people, both German and foreign, is one of hopefulness. It is recognised that recovery will be slow, and that the present generation, which has to rehabilitate the value of tho mark and feel the -first shock of paying 1 the Entente claims, will never again know prewar prosperity; but still it is felt that Germany is going, to recover, and that with allied help a good beginning can soon be made. Of coursp, allied help means! that German firms are again to enter into competition; but Germany cannot pay any of the claims, made against her unless such competition takes place, and the idea that Germany can for years to come be the serious rival of any allied country is scouted here by all in the best position to judge. NO GREAT GLUT IN THE MARKET.

Personally. I have been through a number of" large warehouses in Hamburg, and if Germany has large stocks of prood,» waiting to be exported they certainly are not* at Hamburg. Germany has china and glass and potasi'j' to export, but few things in such /quantities as need cause alarm iri Ktjtente countries. Tbi* problem is this: Germany has facturiiN, docks, railways, labor, and everything required for productive purpose,-:. She is destitute, however, of alb thclse raw materials which were formerly imported from abroad to feed thdise factories; and owing to the almost vanished value 1 of the mark she is Amable at present to buy those raw materials. How to finance herself and so employ hefr productive resources is the problem : winch Germany is attempting to solve; ■and (he problem about which T inquired during my stay in Bremen and HamM.rg. '■ VANISHED TONNAGE. .To commence with, certain elementary falts are thoroughly realised there. It is recognised that Germany's overseas trade is absolutely dependent upon the Allies; that Germany's recovery as a whole is equally dependent upon the allies, and that Germany is destitute of ships to carry her exports and imports, j Prior to the outbreak of war Bremen had a tonnage of 1,300,000 tons, and Hamburg of 2,000,000 tons; while now the tonnages owned are respectively 50,000 and 82,500. AH Germany owns now is only Si per cent, of her pre-war shipping tonnage. As against these realities, Germany has two assets which she considers to be of considerable value. She has a large market to offer, and she has large labor power. Germany wishes to pledge these two assets in exchange for ipngdatcd credits —by which, and by wnich alone, she can recover sufficiently: and those credits would have tn"be furnished in the form of raw materials and food supplies to enable Germany to tide over the worst of the post-war period.

SHORT COMMONS. Realising that she has to go on short rations for many years, Germany will probalbly place an embargo upon the importation of luxuries, and is certainly prepared to use in home consumption only the barest subsistence minimum. Beyond that minimum Germany will re-export all raw materials sent her in the form of manufactured articles; thus really exporting the value of her labor. By this labor value and by those home, products which Germany can export, it is hoped that over a course of years Germany will be able to re-establish the value of the mark and to repay credits and interest.