THE NEXT PARLIAMENT.

Taranaki Daily News, 8 September 1919, Page 5

THE NEXT PARLIAMENT.

EARLY SPECULATION! (From Our Special Correspondent J Wellington, Sept. 6. Though the exercise is necessarily 4 {', very futile one, there are a number af >' people about Parliament House just now spending many of their idle half-bonri , in speculating on the party conipoifUott of the next House of Representative*, ft \ is a pastime in which Reformers, '/ and Laboritcs mingle with a fine aftacta- "■ tion of unconcern 'and impartiality, iM '•■ roach, by practically the same beat«X' patlis, widely different conclusions. M» I'ieformers profess to be sure of a major* lty, i! small one perhaps, but still larM ' enough to make theni independent 4f * either of the other parties and to earn*' - their'policy through Parliament wttl»« * out submitting to any degrading com- ", promises. They expect to lose om of the three seats they now bold in North ' Auckland and two, or even three, ia tfcv •' Wellington-Taranaki district, bat they \ are confident of more than m«HM> u».. for these losses by gains in theXMb Coast constituencies and in Outertaat and Southland. - .. LIBERAL ANTICIPATIONS. ~ The Liberals, counting upon « fug* section of sane Labor being drawn .]• .'+ their camp by Sir Joseph Ward's radiJM '• programme, anticipate a somewhat buffer margin than the Reformers are They mark off forty-two or forty-thrt» : seats as certainties for themserfe* ajA two or three more for Labor candidate unpledged to the Social Democrat!* Party. They arc not very eonfjdant fC recovering one of the North M mf seatß under the present system of tUtt . tion, but they believe they will win owfe' four or five in the Wellington-Tannaflt district, which will mean, in affect, lit; ' increase of eight or ten votes ia tSr r House. They expect to pick up a aatfc in South Auckland, to improve tMt, position in Otago, to hold their MIS it Southland, and to lose no more than fta> seats iff Canterbury. The sane Late • support they are anticipating ia to eorM from Taranaki, Wangamii, and Auckland City. LABOR'S ASPIRATIONS.

In its candid momenta, official labor, the section of the ultra-progressivei that is controlled by the Social Democrats organisation, will tell you it it hoping for nothing better than to, hold tb» balance of power between the' two other parties. It also will tell you that «t the moment it is more concerned about the faint-hoarted workori! Sir Joseph •' Ward's "nationalising?' policy may weak- ■} en in their adherence to "the cause" than I* jthey are about the other timid folk who ' taay be frightened into voting political "\ Jieace at any price by Mr, Maasey"* fervid warnings against Bolshevism. Their estimates of the numbers of Mate ,'■ they are going to win Vary from twriw ■ jo twenty, but they support the larger '.„ estimate by such far-fetched assumption! *s the defeat of Dr. Newman, Mr. WB» lord, and Sir William Fraawr by Labor candidates and the ignominious rejeeUoß of sitting Labor members who ban jtafused to accept "the pledge." < THE DESTINIES OP PARTIES. ■■ jJ Theso conflicting anticipations—all, of * (touree, more or less colored by the ' >luff which is part of the politicians' game—do not help one very materially , ■ ) h predicting what will happen at the ■ ''', forthcoming election. Even after the most unbiassed analysis of the proba— /■"'' bilities a good deal is left to the hazartf. ' -.' of luck. With the existing method of" ■-1 voting, under which the polling" must bo J conducted, the victory is not alwaya to ■ .w the majority, any more than the race -'3 is always to the swift or the battle to M the strong. But, after discounting all ' s the estimates, with as little partiality 3 as any of us can command, its seems * probable that in the new Parliament "% Labor will have a greater vojee than s! ever before in determining which of the ' 'j two older parties will occupy the *1 Treasury Benches. Perhaps it is tUa' j contingency the Reform newspapere have % in view when they hint at the-reviving X of the Coalition as the only safeguard J against the perils of revolutionary '1 Socialism. ■ -5