The Daily News. WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 1918. THE BALKANS.

Taranaki Daily News, 13 February 1918, Page 4

The Daily News. WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 1918. THE BALKANS.

According to a recent cable from Washington the Swiss Legation has received semi-official advice to the effect that Germany is planning an offensive in the Balkans on a big scale, utilising Teuton troops from the Russian front and cooperating with the Bulgarians. It is significant that the messages proceeds to detail the objects of this drive—to expel the Italians from the Epirus and the Anglo-French from Salonika, also to restore Constantine and make the Central Powers masters of the Balkans. This is a fairly comprehensive move thoroughly in keeping with German aims, and •there appears to be little doubt that tht> message was inspired from German sources as part of the persistent policy of bluff which characterises Teutonic action. At the same time it is remarkable that Germany should proclaim her intentions, and the explanation would seem to bo that it is part of Germany's tactics 1 - threaten the Allies at several points, possibly Avith the hope that their forces may be so split up that a concentrated offensive at one or more points on the West front might lead to victory. If, however, the Balkans offensive is really intended Germany will have her hands full, in view of the fact that apart from the Western battle area she has sent an ultimatum to Russia and Boumania, and is engaged in a struggle with Italy, wlhile the internal unrest in Germany demands a very considerable force to cope with probable outbreaks. Assuming that Germany really contemplates a Balkan offensive it is as well to note how she may fare in such an enterprise. Speaking at a banquet at. the end of Januaty, M- Venizelos, the Greek Premier, referred to the baseless and absurd rumors that the Balkan front would be abandoned or weakened. These rumors were circulated wiffi a purpose which is all part of the same cunning that Germany lias dhown throughout the war. The Greek Premier pointed out that General Guillaumat's appointment proved the growing importance attached by the Entente to this front, which, hesides being a solid barrier to invasion, ■would later serve as a starting point for vigorous action, wherein the Hellenic army would share. This statement was followed a few days later by an official cable declaring that Greece could mobilise 400,000 troops at Salonika in two months, and that it was expected the Allies would have a million men available for an impending drive. We have no reliable information as to the strength of the Allied forces in the Balkans, but it is probable that over a million are available. When thia last mentioned cable arrived the question seemed to be whether it would be advisable, with the aid of Greece, to attempt an offensive this spring, but Germany has, apparently, given the answer by notifying her intention to make an offensive on a large scale. In all probability Germany is relying mainly on Bulgarian forces, stiffened by Teutonic reinforcements, to accomplish her objects. Bulgaria is none too keen on dancing to Germany's piping, nor is it likely tJhat she will be disposed to sacrifice her manhood for the absurd purpose of restoring Constantine to the Greek throne. In estimating the chances of success either of Germany or the Allies we have to recognise that such chances depend very largely upon what amount of pressure is put elaewhere upon the Central

Powers anil Turkey, also upon the Thitente Powers. Assuming that Bulgaria does Germany's bidding, it- is possible for her to nut into the field anything ■between five and eight hundred thousand men, as there seems under present circumetancs no longer any necessity for Bulgaria to maintain any considerable force on the Roumanian front. .From whatever point of view the position is regarded, .uccess in the Balkans would appear to be dependent on action at the main war theatre. Powerful offensives on the West and Italian fronts must still be deciding factor's, for Turkey is fully occupied in Palestine, Mesopotamia, Arabia and elsewhere. Now comes the question of Roumania, whom Germany is desperately striving to drive into tihe peace net. It is officially reported from the Roumanian front that the Roumanians have been disarming the Russian troops in that area. After twenty-four hours' fighting the Roumanians disarmed a Russian division and captured fifty guns with which the Russians had been bombarding Gahitz, on the Danube. They also disarmed and sent to Russia an army corps which attacked Valtieini, in Moldavia, and subsequently fougfht the Bolsheviks all over Bessarabia, occupying food centres there as well as the railway as far as Kishinev. That is why Germany is threatening the Roumanians, for she can clearly see that her plans are not working out as she expected, and it is by no means improbable that the complications which have arisen as regards -the Russians and ■Roumanians have been the means of producing the bombastic declaration of a German offensive in the Balkans—to strike terror into the hearts of the Roumanians and cause the Entente Powers to alter their arrangements. If the Germans take advantage of the anarchy in Russia to attack in the West they will very probably only meet with a repulse and colossal losses which would have an incalculable effect on the morale of 'her troops and possibly hasten an internal upheaval, while if they crushed Roumania and secured the food producing areas of Bessarabia they would achieve a great stroke. If, however, Roumania combined with Greece and the Allies, Germany's task would be full of difficulties, especially if Italy comes up to the mark as it is hoped she will. The weak link in the chain is Roumania, and her position is by no means an enviable one as matters are at present. We may take it for granted that the Allies have fully considered all the factors and have made their arrangements accordingly. Unlike Germany they are not likely to advertise their plans or to attempt to bluff their opponents. All that appears to be certain is that both sides are about to put forth strenuous efforts, and judging by the futi|e attacks of the Germans at Verdun the 'enemy is still bent on- depleting his man power without gaining any advantage. The threatened Teuton offensive in the Balkans may or may not eventuate, but a trial of strength on the West front appears to be in sight.