WAR PERSPECTIVE.

Taranaki Daily News, 10 January 1918, Page 2

WAR PERSPECTIVE.

CORRECT VIEWPOINT. ' WESTERN GAINS OUTWEKUi ITALIAN LOSSES (Wellington Times' Correspondent). London, Nov. 8. We are in some danger of losing the true perspective of the war by too close a concentration on the reverses sustained by our Italian Allies. If the enemy claims aro to be accepted, the Germans by this time have probably taken over 200,000 prisoner# and not far short of 2000 guns. The loss of the guns is serious, for they aro harder to replace than men. But if the number of prisoners seems appalling we are justified at least in recalling that the Austrians lost this number of prisoners during tilie first month of the war, while their losses during I'russilofTs offensive last year were reputed to amount to something like 400,000 men. Nor must we ever forget that the Western 'is the main, and . the Italian only a secondary theatre of the war.

On the Western front things are going very well for the Allies. After a struggle' extending over many weeks the village of Passchendaele is in our hands, and Sir Douglas Haig now holds the crown and crest cf the great ridge which made a barrier round the Ypros salient and overlooks for miles the low-lying, swampy ground of the Fli&ders plain. Only a few inconsiderable spurs now remain to give IB complete possession of the ridge, and if we aro able to keep the ground we have won the enemy's defensive position from this time forward will ba spread out like a map. beneath us. As Mr. Philip Gibbs expresses it in one of his despatches, we shall see "all his roadß winding like tapes below us and his men marching up them like ants, and the flash and fire of his guns and 1 all the secrets of liia life, as for three years lie looked down on us and gave us hell." If nothing more than this had resulted from the desperate fighting that has taken lllace on the Flanders front, Sir Douglas Haig would still have something substantial to show for all his efforts. But there is much more than this, and the capture of the village of Passchendaele sets the crown on a great British,'vie* tory. WHAT WILL THE GERMANS 1 DO? We know well the importance the enemy attached to the ground they have lost.. Orders have been captured, attributed to the redoubtable von Hindenburg himself, insisting that 'at all. coats" Passchendaele must be held, and, if lost; must be regained 1 .. Past, experience justifies us in assuming that the enemy's counteroffensives will: be repulsed, and' in. that case a big l moral defeat Will have been inflicted on the Prussian war machine on its own. chosen ground.. If tTicv are unable to dislodge us from the Ridge, the next movement of the Germans will ba awaited with interest..

What will tiiey do? Will they elect to sit down in the mud swamps of-the plain and suffer in their turn the. hell ■they inflicted on us? Or will they accept the inevitable and retire on to higher 'and more easily defensible ground? If the latter choice is made it is hardly necessary to point out that it will mean 'tlie uncovering of Ostend and of a big slice of Western Belgium. The Honthulst Forest would go, Roulers would go, ,and' Lille itself would 1 be directly menlaced. It would be too much to say.' that these consequences are expected to follow immediately. Tiio impression here, for what it may be worth, is that the enemy will endeavor to hold on to th° Belgian coast for as long as possible if only for the furtherance of the U-"boat campaign—a campaign which is not going very, satisfactorily from the Kaiser's point of view, but on which German hopes are placed to an exte; which w in this country find it difficult to appreciate. The belief is that the Germans will make the best of a very bad business and face the privations ;r ' horrors of a winter in tlu mud. This was the (■ww they pursued on the Somme front, ilia, the history of the Sontiiic may well he repeated on the Flanders front. In the early spring if nothing turns up to extricate the German Micawber from bis idiflieulties, we may s ee .mother ''vo!:in•tary retirement." In 'the meantime there will be another fierce peace offensive, whereby the enemy will make a last desporate effort to end the war before Christmas.

THE AISNE FRONT. While Sir. Douglas Haig lias given the coup de grace to the Germans oil, l'asiehcndaelp Ridge, the German C'rouh Prince has been forced to withdraw his forces from the northern side of tin; Chemin dw Dames, aiul has' fall;.; back to heights on the northern bank of the Ailette rive:. The retirement- n'a: not unexpected. By ah victor, H, Malmaisor-, Gen-rel Maistro, who was ii: charge 01. 3 1 1 operations, outflftnK'i' ii>; enemy'', position s along [the AileU, VaMey. The 'irr.oortc.mw -fho Genur.i.s attach tc the loss ground w..s shown by the uesperate effort'-. tii?v nisnle t 0 recover it. Praline .n their counterofiensivet, tuoy h#rt r,., -shoto , m; to ml oack, aw; vo.i Liindcnonvo h.r, .•)>». doubted ly done the vi»hi thii.~ a, Mie right moment it, c-rderiug fc withdiKwaj. the consequence-; if thsv withdrawal 'T-Fo qerioue. Pretend tha; oa thy, ■WiKie"'tiiey" had electee a voii.nuuy u.ier.i." lum; they nor- gone wick to ih'.v. J a ,j ii nt j; resistance oa the Ailette heights., tie Seventh German Amy would have'been in danger of envelopment, And bave suffered a Sedan. To- avoid this they have aO&udouet'. .m important sir;,; of land some twelve miles wii'e h< ve surrendered the villa;,,, Cw.rleeo,,, Aillwi, anj Chevrtoy ,„ c lw „ uw dve , the Ailclk, J.eiei:di:.e; tile ridge wii!,-'; atfoids the W-rior -.:f «rn>at ccrtress of Laoii. Gwwki Prttfc «ill b<. able to develop the aiivantage secured is & qv.estioi. on which jur c ar> os:ty had belle;- be restrained, "i-it a! ; ehsr.ces a f_ n rsriemi of the Crown Princes ofiensivt th* Aire.. i ian t .rave been destroyed, and ,t „iwt uoi 1)5 forgottw, that tills Ls-on salie.it is at. pnrt of she cssm.r's entire line in the We?t.

Tne «ie to which the Tto«Mi will ? t ' u ' Important strategical ndvang j *!'<>? hav e sained will prohablv depend hi larsw measure on the decisions whicu are reached by the War Council' at present boin s held in Ital v, at which Mr, Llovd George. M. ruinleve. and their military advisers are ponferring with the iltalian Government on the" measures jwbieh shall- 1>« t* retrieve the isitiMt.ioft k-f CUwAPaI Gadopsa's i | TRS ITAItAST ' j ft is Se tx> teai-ed i K jth» V'nn jpwjied «n W»;--.tKrn iiftg i ■Uvou-rM, int-fl Insigiilfiear.c" ?>v h nil . pemngs in Itnlr. taring t : J le f 3 ' w [days we have. Wn watohing with

cerii and deep sympathy the retirement of the entire Italian armies across the Venetian Plain, In little more than a fortnight, mainly through the disall'ection of some of-his troops, (Icneral Guloniii lias lost all, and more than all, of what it tool; him two years of strenuous effort to achieve ft is too much to hope that our Ally can emerge unscathed from the further retreat that has been involved by the enemy's success in'forcing the line of the Tagliamento, and we know already that the Italian losses since their defeat on the Isonzo have 'been enormous. Even if we assume tlmt a considerable proportion of the men who laid down their arms belong to units whose loyalty to their country hnd been

supped by the propaganda (>rman agents are known to have been carrying 011 amongst them, we still have to face the fact that the war material lost in the retreat not only cannot be replaced, but will doubtlessly be turned to useful Ipnrpose by the enemy.

Happily, the disaster is not irretrievable, and may even b'e turned to useful account by the Allies if the situation is tackled courageously. Climatic conditions offer no obstacle to active military operations in Northern Italy even during the winter months, and with the Alps behind him the position- of the enemy will not 'be exactly a comfortable one. Assuredly it would be no part of von Hindeijlmrg's calculation when he set out on this enterprise that he might be called upon to wage all through the winter 'months a strenuous and difficult campaign on the Venetian Plain or on the Plains of Lorn-bardy. Dims far the results of the campaign must have exceeded (Jcrmany'a utmost expectations. But even on the Italian plains the enemy must look forward to the coining month's with some misgivings. By heroic efforts von Hindenburg scraped together sufficient men to take the initiative against General Cadoraa, but it will not serve iliis purpose at all if we wage a war of iattrition against him on the Italian ;pJains ;is preparation for a renewal of .our offensive on the Western- front in ;the spring of WIS. THE PIAVE OR THE ADIGE?. The swiftness with which the enemy has fo-i-(;d the. line of the Tagliamento -suggests that General Cadorna may not have intended to make anything more than a temporary- stand along the river. This view is not advanced with any desire to belittle the success of the enemy or to put a gopd face on a, very deplorable situation. It is an opinion based on the probabilities for either.-the line of ,the Piave or tho line of the Adife offers 'much more favorable ground for holding up tJie encmyfe attack. . The line of the Adige has always Tiecn regarded by experts as Italy's true strategic frontier, for it reduces to a minimum the risk of outflanking by an enemy advance from the Trentino. But it lias a serious sentimental objection (hat it uncovers the cit.v of Venice, tho loss of which would inflict a very great moral blow to the Allies and would, to that extent,'-greatly encourage the enemy. Paris, which is probably in closer touch with' our Italian Ally than London can claim to- be, has been-,preparing us for some days .for-a retirement, not to the line-of the Adige, Jiiiti to the line of the Piave. If this is the policy that has been decided on there should be no -difficulty- on holding .this new front, always assuming that the Italian armies stand firm and-that.there is no extension to other units of that weakenine of the will to conquer which manifested itself in the Second Army, and which was responsible for the original disaster on the Isonzo.